Konyaspor 1-0 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 5 as Konyaspor welcome Trabzonspor to Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 September 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Konyaspor have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Konyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Konyaspor's home record at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Konyaspor are significantly better at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Trabzonspor — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Trabzonspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Konyaspor) versus 1.30 (Trabzonspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Konyaspor, 5 for Trabzonspor and 1 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2026, ended 2–1 with Konyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Konyaspor in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Konyaspor 63% and Trabzonspor 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 55% | Trabzonspor 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.19 xG and Trabzonspor 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.806 / defence 1.055 | Trabzonspor attack 1.030 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.555 / away 1.215. Data: 38 Konyaspor games / 38 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 33% | Draw 27% | Trabzonspor 40%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Trabzonspor 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 40% | Trabzonspor 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Sep 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 33% | Draw 27% | Trabzonspor 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Konyaspor 1.19 / Trabzonspor 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.806 / def 1.055 | Trabzonspor attack 1.030 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.555 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Trabzonspor xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 12 September 2026 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Konyaspor 1 - 0 Trabzonspor.
Where is Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 33% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Konyaspor and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Trabzonspor?
Record (9 meetings): Konyaspor 3W | Draws 1 | Trabzonspor 5W.
What form are Konyaspor and Trabzonspor in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Trabzonspor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (0.81) and Trabzonspor's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Konyaspor's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
33%
2.99
27%
3.72
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.51
1.32
Trabzonspor xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
9%
11.18
12%
8.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.7 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.32 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 10W 10D 18L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Konyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Trabzonspor's form line: 22W 10D 6L from 38 games, 2.00 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Trabzonspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Trabzonspor are the form team by 0.95 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Konyaspor.
Venue Form
On home soil, Konyaspor have posted 1.26 PPG from 19 outings (6W 6D 7L).
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 11W 4D 4L from 19 away games — 1.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Konyaspor are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.84 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Trabzonspor in 68%.
Last 38 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Early Season
Trabzonspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 10W 10D 18L in their last 38 games (1.05 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 22W 10D 6L in their last 38 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Trabzonspor away?
Trabzonspor's away record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.26 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Konyaspor have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Konyaspor's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Konyaspor
1
Draws
5
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Trabzonspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 4, Trabzonspor have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Konyaspor 1-0 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 53%, Trabzonspor 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Konyaspor) and 63% (Trabzonspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 10% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Konyaspor have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Konyaspor's games and 74% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Konyaspor's matches and 63% of Trabzonspor's.
Do Konyaspor and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Konyaspor defy the odds to beat Trabzonspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Trabzonspor 1-0 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.19 xG and Trabzonspor 1.32 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Trabzonspor landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.81 / defence 1.05 against Trabzonspor attack 1.03 / defence 0.95, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 33% | Draw 27% | Trabzonspor 40%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Konyaspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 55%, Trabzonspor 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.05. Form was overturned, with Konyaspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Konyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.