Konyaspor 1-0 Gaziantep FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 50%, yet in-form Gaziantep FK provide a compelling counter-argument — this Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu plays host to Konyaspor versus Gaziantep FK in Süper Lig (matchday 29). Kick-off: Friday 28 March 2025 at 17:30 UK time.
Current Form
Konyaspor's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Konyaspor have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Konyaspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Gaziantep FK have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Gaziantep FK have gone 1W 2D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Gaziantep FK arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Konyaspor's last 10 home games and Gaziantep FK's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Konyaspor's games and 90% of Gaziantep FK's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Konyaspor, 3 for Gaziantep FK and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.1 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 27 Oct 2024, ended Konyaspor 1–3 Gaziantep FK — a Gaziantep FK win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.1 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Konyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (last 64 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Gaziantep FK half-time and goal-timing data (last 64 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 55% versus Gaziantep FK 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 42% | Gaziantep FK 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.83 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.963 / defence 0.957 | Gaziantep FK attack 1.121 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.184. Data: built from Konyaspor's last 65 games and Gaziantep FK's last 64.
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 50% | Draw 24% | Gaziantep FK 26%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.00 | Draw 4.18 | Gaziantep FK 3.84. Konyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.83 / 1.27) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gaziantep FK (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.10 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Konyaspor's last 10 home games and Gaziantep FK's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Konyaspor 70% (last 10 home games) | Gaziantep FK 90% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 29 | Venue: Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 28 March 2025 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 50% | Draw 24% | Gaziantep FK 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Konyaspor 1.83 / Gaziantep FK 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.963 / def 0.957 | Gaziantep FK attack 1.121 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.644 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Gaziantep FK xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK FAQs
What time does Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK kick off?
Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Friday 28 March 2025 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Konyaspor 1 - 0 Gaziantep FK.
Where is Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK being played?
The match is being played at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK part of?
Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 29) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 50% chance of winning, Gaziantep FK a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Konyaspor and Gaziantep FK will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Konyaspor's attack at 0.96x the league average against Gaziantep FK's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gaziantep FK's attack (1.12x) against Konyaspor's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from Konyaspor's last 65 games and Gaziantep FK's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
50%
2.00
24%
4.18
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
3.10
1.27
Gaziantep FK xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
16%
6.24
Win to Nil
14%
7.12
4%
23.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.5 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Gaziantep FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.27 for Gaziantep FK, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Konyaspor come into this having played 64 games, going 17W 20D 27L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-W.
On the other side, Gaziantep FK sit at 1.28 PPG from 64 outings (23W 13D 28L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Konyaspor against 1.28 for Gaziantep FK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Konyaspor's home form reads 11W 9D 11L across their last 31 home games, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Gaziantep FK have taken 0.90 points per game from their last 31 away games (8W 4D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Konyaspor are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Gaziantep FK are on 1.34 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Gaziantep FK
Blended
Konyaspor (Home) vs Gaziantep FK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Konyaspor
Blended
Gaziantep FK
Blended
❓ Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK Form FAQs
What form are Konyaspor and Gaziantep FK in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 17W 20D 27L in their last 64 games (1.11 PPG), while Gaziantep FK have gone 23W 13D 28L in their last 64 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Gaziantep FK away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.35 PPG; Gaziantep FK away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Konyaspor and Gaziantep FK, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 25 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Konyaspor won Konyaspor 4-1 Gaziantep FK on 17 Apr 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 4W 0D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Gaziantep FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Konyaspor
2
Draws
3
Gaziantep FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Gaziantep FK?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Konyaspor have won 5, Gaziantep FK have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Gaziantep FK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 January 2026: Gaziantep FK 1-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Gaziantep FK?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 64% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 52%, Gaziantep FK 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Konyaspor) and 74% (Gaziantep FK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Gaziantep FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Konyaspor and Gaziantep FK matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Konyaspor's games and 64% of Gaziantep FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Konyaspor and Gaziantep FK matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 42% of Konyaspor's matches and 74% of Gaziantep FK's.
Do Konyaspor and Gaziantep FK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 81% of Gaziantep FK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Konyaspor edge out Gaziantep FK 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Gaziantep FK 1-0 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 29, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.83 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.27 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Konyaspor fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Gaziantep FK landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.96 / defence 0.96 against Gaziantep FK attack 1.12 / defence 1.16, drawn from 65/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 50% | Draw 24% | Gaziantep FK 26%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 42%, Gaziantep FK 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.11 PPG, Gaziantep FK 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Konyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Konyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.