Konyaspor 1-1 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fatih Karagümrük at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük meet at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 November 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Konyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor's home record at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fatih Karagümrük have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fatih Karagümrük's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Konyaspor lead 1W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Jun 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Konyaspor — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Fatih Karagümrük — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 54% versus Fatih Karagümrük 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 50% | Fatih Karagümrük 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.11 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.774 / defence 1.109 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.949 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.212. Konyaspor's attack strength of 0.774 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 46 Konyaspor games / 46 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 29% | Draw 33% | Fatih Karagümrük 37%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 3.45 | Draw 3.03 | Fatih Karagümrük 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fatih Karagümrük are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fatih Karagümrük if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 80% | Fatih Karagümrük 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Nov 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 29% | Draw 33% | Fatih Karagümrük 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 51% | xG Konyaspor 1.11 / Fatih Karagümrük 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.774 / def 1.109 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.949 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.464 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Fatih Karagümrük xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Konyaspor 1 - 1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 29% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 37% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Record (4 meetings): Konyaspor 1W | Draws 2 | Fatih Karagümrük 1W.
What form are Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (0.77) and Fatih Karagümrük's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fatih Karagümrük's attack (0.95x) against Konyaspor's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
29%
3.40
33%
3.02
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.38
1.27
Fatih Karagümrük xG
3.40
29%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
8%
12.18
12%
8.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 11.8 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.27 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 46 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 14W 18D 14L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fatih Karagümrük's form line: 15W 16D 15L from 46 games, 1.33 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-D. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Konyaspor against 1.33 for Fatih Karagümrük. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Konyaspor have posted 1.18 PPG from 22 outings (6W 8D 8L).
On the road, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 7W 8D 7L from 22 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Konyaspor are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 1.83 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fatih Karagümrük in 63%.
Last 46 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 14W 18D 14L in their last 46 games (1.30 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 15W 16D 15L in their last 46 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Fatih Karagümrük's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.18 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Konyaspor won 1-4 on 11 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fatih Karagümrük — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Konyaspor
4
Draws
2
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 8 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 2, Fatih Karagümrük have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Konyaspor 3-0 Fatih Karagümrük.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 59%, Fatih Karagümrük 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Konyaspor) and 64% (Fatih Karagümrük).
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Fatih Karagümrük?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Konyaspor's games and 64% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Konyaspor's recent games and 64% of Fatih Karagümrük's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük finished level at 1-1 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu, Regular Season - 11, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.11 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.27 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.77 / defence 1.11 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.95 / defence 0.98, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 29% | Draw 33% | Fatih Karagümrük 37%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 50%, Fatih Karagümrük 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.30 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.