Konyaspor 1-1 Eyüpspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Eyüpspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 18 as Konyaspor welcome Eyüpspor to Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 19 January 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Konyaspor have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Konyaspor have posted 2W 3D 5L at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eyüpspor stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Eyüpspor have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Konyaspor) versus 0.80 (Eyüpspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Konyaspor have won 2, Eyüpspor 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2025, ended 4–1 with Konyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Konyaspor in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Eyüpspor in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 64% versus Eyüpspor 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 53% | Eyüpspor 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.27 xG and Eyüpspor 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.906 / defence 1.059 | Eyüpspor attack 0.680 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.296. Data: 53 Konyaspor games / 53 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 40% | Draw 36% | Eyüpspor 23%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.50 | Draw 2.78 | Eyüpspor 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Konyaspor at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Konyaspor 70% | Eyüpspor 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 19 Jan 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 40% | Draw 36% | Eyüpspor 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 48% | xG Konyaspor 1.27 / Eyüpspor 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.906 / def 1.059 | Eyüpspor attack 0.680 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.317 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Eyüpspor xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Konyaspor vs Eyüpspor kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 19 January 2026 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Eyüpspor?
Konyaspor 1 - 1 Eyüpspor.
Where is Konyaspor vs Eyüpspor being played?
The match is being played at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Eyüpspor part of?
Konyaspor vs Eyüpspor is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 40% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 23% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Konyaspor and Eyüpspor will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Eyüpspor?
Record (3 meetings): Konyaspor 2W | Draws 0 | Eyüpspor 1W.
What form are Konyaspor and Eyüpspor in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Eyüpspor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Konyaspor's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Eyüpspor's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, Eyüpspor's attack versus Konyaspor's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
40%
2.49
36%
2.74
23%
4.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.20
0.93
Eyüpspor xG
2.49
40%
Home win
2.74
36%
Draw
4.28
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
16%
6.33
7%
15.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 10.3 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.1 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Konyaspor and 0.93 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Eyüpspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Konyaspor's recent record stands at 17W 12D 24L from 53 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eyüpspor, meanwhile, have gone 18W 12D 23L across 53 games — 1.25 PPG, with D-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Eyüpspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Konyaspor on 1.19 PPG, Eyüpspor on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Konyaspor have managed 11W 8D 7L from 26 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Eyüpspor's away record stands at 6W 6D 14L across 26 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Konyaspor are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 1.17 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Eyüpspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 17W 12D 24L in their last 53 games (1.19 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 18W 12D 23L in their last 53 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Eyüpspor away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.58 PPG; Eyüpspor away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Konyaspor and Eyüpspor runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Aug 2025, when Konyaspor won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Konyaspor's record when hosting Eyüpspor specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Konyaspor
1
Draws
1
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Eyüpspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 2, Eyüpspor have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Eyüpspor last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2026, when Konyaspor 1-1 Eyüpspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Eyüpspor?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 62%, Eyüpspor 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Konyaspor) and 42% (Eyüpspor).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Eyüpspor in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Eyüpspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 46% of Eyüpspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Konyaspor vs Eyüpspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Konyaspor's recent games and 42% of Eyüpspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Eyüpspor tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Eyüpspor in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Konyaspor and Eyüpspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor and Eyüpspor finished level at 1-1 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.27 xG and Eyüpspor 0.93 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.91 / defence 1.06 against Eyüpspor attack 0.68 / defence 1.06, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 40% | Draw 36% | Eyüpspor 23%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 53%, Eyüpspor 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Eyüpspor's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.19 PPG, Eyüpspor 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.