Konyaspor 0-0 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 50%, yet in-form Başakşehir provide a compelling counter-argument — this Konyaspor vs Başakşehir fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Konyaspor host Başakşehir at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 October 2026 at 10:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Konyaspor stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Konyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Konyaspor have posted 5W 2D 3L at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Konyaspor are significantly better at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Başakşehir — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Başakşehir have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Başakşehir have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Başakşehir are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Konyaspor, 5 for Başakşehir and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2026, ended 0–2 with Başakşehir winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Konyaspor in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 60% versus Başakşehir 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 52% | Başakşehir 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.56 xG and Başakşehir 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.830 / defence 0.925 | Başakşehir attack 0.904 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.625 / away 1.198. Data: 40 Konyaspor games / 40 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 50% | Draw 25% | Başakşehir 24%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Başakşehir 4.17. Konyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Başakşehir (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 30% | Başakşehir 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Oct 2026, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 50% | Draw 25% | Başakşehir 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Konyaspor 1.56 / Başakşehir 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.830 / def 0.925 | Başakşehir attack 0.904 / def 1.155 | league avg home 1.625 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Başakşehir xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Konyaspor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Konyaspor 0 - 0 Başakşehir.
Where is Konyaspor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Başakşehir part of?
Konyaspor vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 50% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Konyaspor and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Başakşehir?
Record (9 meetings): Konyaspor 3W | Draws 1 | Başakşehir 5W.
What form are Konyaspor and Başakşehir in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Başakşehir (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Konyaspor's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Başakşehir's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Konyaspor's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
50%
1.99
25%
3.94
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.56
1.00
Başakşehir xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
18%
5.41
5%
19.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.1 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.00 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 11W 11D 18L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Konyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Başakşehir's form line: 18W 10D 12L from 40 games, 1.60 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Başakşehir, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Başakşehir are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Konyaspor.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Konyaspor have posted 1.26 PPG from 19 outings (6W 6D 7L).
On the road, Başakşehir have gone 8W 3D 8L from 19 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Konyaspor are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.70 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Başakşehir in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Early Season
Başakşehir
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 11W 11D 18L in their last 40 games (1.10 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 18W 10D 12L in their last 40 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Başakşehir away?
Başakşehir's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.26 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Konyaspor and Başakşehir runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 11 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Konyaspor's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Konyaspor
2
Draws
5
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Başakşehir?
From 10 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 3, Başakşehir have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 11 October 2026, when Konyaspor 0-0 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 53%, Başakşehir 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Konyaspor) and 68% (Başakşehir). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 10% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Başakşehir in 32%; Konyaspor have failed to score in 26% of games; Başakşehir in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Başakşehir?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 53% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Konyaspor vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 42% of Konyaspor's matches and 68% of Başakşehir's.
Do Konyaspor and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Konyaspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium, Regular Season - 7, as Konyaspor and Başakşehir drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.56 xG and Başakşehir 1.00 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Konyaspor fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Başakşehir landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.83 / defence 0.93 against Başakşehir attack 0.90 / defence 1.16, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 50% | Draw 25% | Başakşehir 24%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 52%, Başakşehir 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Başakşehir's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Konyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.