Kayserispor 1-2 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kayserispor at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kayserispor host Trabzonspor at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Kayserispor — All Games: 3W 2D 2L from 7 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.57 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.29 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 7 games (43%) reflects a solid defensive base. Kayserispor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı, Kayserispor have gone 2W 1D 0L this season (3 games, 2.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.57 — Kayserispor are significantly better at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have recorded 4W 3D 0L from 7 outings — 2.14 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Trabzonspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Trabzonspor have posted 3W 1D 0L from 4 away outings — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.25 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Trabzonspor are 0.57 PPG ahead (2.14 vs 1.57), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Kayserispor in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 71% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Trabzonspor in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 43% versus Trabzonspor 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 43% | Trabzonspor 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.27 xG and Trabzonspor 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 1.107 / defence 0.885 | Trabzonspor attack 1.175 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.188 / away 1.056. Data: 7 Kayserispor games / 7 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 40% | Draw 28% | Trabzonspor 32%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Trabzonspor 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kayserispor are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Trabzonspor (2.14 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kayserispor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kayserispor 33% | Trabzonspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Kadir Has Şehir Stadı • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 40% | Draw 28% | Trabzonspor 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Kayserispor 1.27 / Trabzonspor 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 1.107 / def 0.885 | Trabzonspor attack 1.175 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.188 / away 1.056 • Poisson stance: Kayserispor (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Trabzonspor xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor?
Kayserispor 1 - 2 Trabzonspor.
Where is Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 40% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Kayserispor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Kayserispor and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Trabzonspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kayserispor and Trabzonspor in?
Kayserispor (all comps): 3W-2D-2L in 7 | 1.57 PPG | GF 1.29 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Trabzonspor (all comps): 4W-3D-0L in 7 | 2.14 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Kayserispor's attack at 1.11x the league average against Trabzonspor's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Kayserispor's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kayserispor Win
40%
2.49
28%
3.60
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
2.36
1.10
Trabzonspor xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
13%
7.46
9%
11.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.3 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.1 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Kayserispor and 1.10 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kayserispor's recent record stands at 3W 2D 2L from 7 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Kayserispor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Trabzonspor, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 0L across 7 games — 2.14 PPG, with W-D-W-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Trabzonspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Trabzonspor by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kayserispor heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Kayserispor have managed 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.57 PPG overall — Kayserispor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Trabzonspor's away record stands at 2W 1D 0L across 3 trips, a 2.33 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Kayserispor are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Trabzonspor's attacking output running into Kayserispor's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor in 71%.
Defensively: Kayserispor have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Early Season
Trabzonspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kayserispor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 games (1.57 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 4W 3D 0L in their last 7 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Trabzonspor away?
Kayserispor's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 2.33 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Kayserispor or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kayserispor have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kayserispor and Trabzonspor runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 9 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Trabzonspor go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Oct 2025, when Trabzonspor won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kayserispor's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Kayserispor
2
Draws
6
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Trabzonspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Kayserispor have won 2, Trabzonspor have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2026, when Kayserispor 1-3 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Kayserispor 33% BTTS, Trabzonspor 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Kayserispor and 33% for Trabzonspor.
On the defensive side: Kayserispor keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Trabzonspor in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kayserispor play Trabzonspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 33% of Trabzonspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Kayserispor's recent games and 33% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kayserispor and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Kayserispor have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Trabzonspor defy the odds to beat Kayserispor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Kayserispor 1-2 at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı, Regular Season - 8, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.27 xG and Trabzonspor 1.10 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Trabzonspor outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 1.11 / defence 0.89 against Trabzonspor attack 1.18 / defence 0.96, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 40% | Draw 28% | Trabzonspor 32%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Trabzonspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 43%, Trabzonspor 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.57. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Kayserispor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.