Kayserispor 1-0 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kayserispor at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kayserispor vs Alanyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Kayserispor welcome Alanyaspor to RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 11). Kick-off is Monday 6 November 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Kayserispor have gone 4W 4D 2L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Kayserispor's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Alanyaspor — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Alanyaspor away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
On current form, Kayserispor have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
Alanyaspor have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 4 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Kayserispor.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 5.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 20 May 2023, ended Kayserispor 0–4 Alanyaspor — a Alanyaspor win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Alanyaspor have won 4 of 4 H2H matches, and at 5.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Kayserispor in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Alanyaspor in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 52% versus Alanyaspor 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 63% | Alanyaspor 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.57 xG and Alanyaspor 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 0.973 / defence 0.811 | Alanyaspor attack 0.764 / defence 1.080. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.236. Alanyaspor's attack rating of 0.764 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.77. Data: built from Kayserispor's last 46 games and Alanyaspor's last 46.
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 54% | Draw 30% | Alanyaspor 16%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 1.85 | Draw 3.30 | Alanyaspor 6.37. Kayserispor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record in our data (4 wins to 0), but Kayserispor carry stronger current form — do not let the head-to-head record alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Kayserispor as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kayserispor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 59% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 5.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kayserispor 30% (last 10 home games) | Alanyaspor 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 11 | Venue: RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 6 November 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 54% | Draw 30% | Alanyaspor 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Kayserispor 1.57 / Alanyaspor 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 0.973 / def 0.811 | Alanyaspor attack 0.764 / def 1.080 | league avg home 1.494 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Kayserispor (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Alanyaspor xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kayserispor vs Alanyaspor FAQs
What time does Kayserispor vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Kayserispor vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Monday 6 November 2023 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Alanyaspor?
Kayserispor 1 - 0 Alanyaspor.
Where is Kayserispor vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Alanyaspor part of?
Kayserispor vs Alanyaspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 11) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 54% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 16% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Kayserispor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Kayserispor and Alanyaspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Kayserispor vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Kayserispor's attack rating (0.97) and Alanyaspor's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Kayserispor's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Kayserispor's last 46 games and Alanyaspor's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.1%), 2-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kayserispor Win
54%
1.85
30%
3.30
16%
6.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
2.34
0.77
Alanyaspor xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
6.37
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
46%
2.15
21%
4.81
Win to Nil
25%
3.98
3%
30.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 11.6 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.1 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kayserispor vs Alanyaspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Kayserispor and 0.77 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kayserispor come into this having played 46 games, going 19W 9D 18L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, Alanyaspor sit at 1.11 PPG from 46 outings (13W 12D 21L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kayserispor on 1.43 PPG, Alanyaspor on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Kayserispor's home form reads 11W 4D 7L across their last 22 home games, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Alanyaspor have taken 0.68 points per game from their last 22 away games (3W 6D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.11 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Alanyaspor's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kayserispor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kayserispor are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.37 scored and 1.80 conceded.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
Kayserispor (Home) vs Alanyaspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kayserispor
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Kayserispor vs Alanyaspor Form FAQs
What form are Kayserispor and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 19W 9D 18L in their last 46 games (1.43 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 13W 12D 21L in their last 46 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Alanyaspor away?
Kayserispor's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 1.68 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 9 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 May 2023, when Alanyaspor won Kayserispor 0-4 Alanyaspor.
Kayserispor's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Kayserispor
2
Draws
6
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Kayserispor vs Alanyaspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Alanyaspor?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Kayserispor have won 2, Alanyaspor have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Alanyaspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 May 2026: Alanyaspor 3-1 Kayserispor.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Alanyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 46%, Alanyaspor 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Kayserispor and 68% for Alanyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kayserispor keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Kayserispor have failed to score in 27% of games; Alanyaspor in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kayserispor vs Alanyaspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kayserispor and Alanyaspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 54% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Kayserispor and Alanyaspor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Kayserispor's matches and 68% of Alanyaspor's.
Do Kayserispor and Alanyaspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 76% of Alanyaspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kayserispor edge out Alanyaspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kayserispor beat Alanyaspor 1-0 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu, Regular Season - 11, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.57 xG and Alanyaspor 0.77 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 0.97 / defence 0.81 against Alanyaspor attack 0.76 / defence 1.08, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 54% | Draw 30% | Alanyaspor 16%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 63%, Alanyaspor 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kayserispor 1.43 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kayserispor win broke the near-deadlock. Kayserispor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.