Kasımpaşa 1-3 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sivasspor at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kasımpaşa and Sivasspor meet at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 December 2021 at 10:30 UTC.
Form
Kasımpaşa (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Kasımpaşa have gone 2W 3D 3L this season (8 games, 1.12 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.12 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Kasımpaşa are significantly better at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Sivasspor have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sivasspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 3L across 7 road games this term (1.14 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Sivasspor arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 62% of their games, Sivasspor in 71%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Kasımpaşa — key trading statistics (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Sivasspor — key trading statistics (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 56% versus Sivasspor 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 44% | Sivasspor 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.13 xG and Sivasspor 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.923 / defence 1.294 | Sivasspor attack 0.760 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.220 / away 1.155. Data: 16 Kasımpaşa games / 16 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 35% | Draw 30% | Sivasspor 35%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Sivasspor 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Kasımpaşa 62% | Sivasspor 71% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Dec 2021, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 35% | Draw 30% | Sivasspor 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.13 / Sivasspor 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 0.923 / def 1.294 | Sivasspor attack 0.760 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.220 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Sivasspor xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 18 December 2021 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor?
Kasımpaşa 1 - 3 Sivasspor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 35% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Sivasspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Sivasspor in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Sivasspor (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Kasımpaşa's attack at 0.92x the league average against Sivasspor's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sivasspor's attack (0.76x) against Kasımpaşa's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sivasspor Win
35%
2.88
30%
3.32
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.26
1.14
Sivasspor xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
11%
8.98
11%
8.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 11.8 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.14 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 16 games, going 2W 5D 9L for 0.69 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-L. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sivasspor sit at 1.38 PPG from 16 outings (5W 7D 4L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sivasspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.69 PPG clear of Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 1W 3D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 0.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Sivasspor have taken 1.14 points per game from 7 outings (2W 2D 3L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kasımpaşa are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.38 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Sivasspor in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Sivasspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 2W 5D 9L in their last 16 games (0.69 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 5W 7D 4L in their last 16 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Sivasspor away?
Sivasspor's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 0.86 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Kasımpaşa or Sivasspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kasımpaşa have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Sivasspor in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kasımpaşa have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sivasspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Kasımpaşa
2
Draws
2
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Sivasspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 4, Sivasspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2025, when Kasımpaşa 3-1 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Sivasspor?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kasımpaşa see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Kasımpaşa, 71% for Sivasspor — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Kasımpaşa) and 43% (Sivasspor).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Sivasspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Kasımpaşa's games and 71% of Sivasspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Kasımpaşa's recent games and 43% of Sivasspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kasımpaşa and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sivasspor cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Kasımpaşa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor beat Kasımpaşa 1-3 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 17, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.13 xG and Sivasspor 1.14 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sivasspor outscored their 1.14 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 0.92 / defence 1.29 against Sivasspor attack 0.76 / defence 1.00, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 35% | Draw 30% | Sivasspor 35%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Sivasspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 44%, Sivasspor 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Sivasspor's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sivasspor arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.69. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sivasspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.