Kasımpaşa 0-6 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fenerbahçe at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kasımpaşa host Fenerbahçe at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 15 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kasımpaşa stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Kasımpaşa have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kasımpaşa have posted 6W 1D 3L at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Fenerbahçe have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Fenerbahçe have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fenerbahçe's away record: 6W 4D 0L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Fenerbahçe are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Kasımpaşa have won 0, Fenerbahçe 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2022, ended 1–2 with Fenerbahçe winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Kasımpaşa in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Fenerbahçe in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kasımpaşa 64% and Fenerbahçe 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 64% | Fenerbahçe 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.46 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.176 / defence 1.114 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.357 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.433 / away 1.260. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack strength of 1.357 — the away xG of 1.90 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 39 Kasımpaşa games / 39 Fenerbahçe games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 30% | Draw 22% | Fenerbahçe 48%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 3.33 | Draw 4.55 | Fenerbahçe 2.08. Fenerbahçe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.90) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fenerbahçe are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.37 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 80% | Fenerbahçe 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 15 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 30% | Draw 22% | Fenerbahçe 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.46 / Fenerbahçe 1.90 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.176 / def 1.114 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.357 / def 0.868 | league avg home 1.433 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.90
Fenerbahçe xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 15 August 2022 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe?
Kasımpaşa 0 - 6 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 30% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 48% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe?
Record (2 meetings): Kasımpaşa 0W | Draws 0 | Fenerbahçe 2W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kasımpaşa's attack at 1.18x the league average against Fenerbahçe's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fenerbahçe's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.90 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
30%
3.36
22%
4.50
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
3.37
1.90
Fenerbahçe xG
3.36
30%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.89
Clean Sheet
15%
6.71
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
4%
22.57
11%
8.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.6 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.90 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 39 games, going 15W 8D 16L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Fenerbahçe sit at 1.90 PPG from 39 outings (21W 11D 7L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fenerbahçe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 8W 4D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Fenerbahçe have taken 1.84 points per game from 19 outings (10W 5D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 1.95 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Fenerbahçe in 64%.
Last 39 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Early Season
Fenerbahçe
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 15W 8D 16L in their last 39 games (1.36 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 21W 11D 7L in their last 39 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.47 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 1.84 PPG.
Have Kasımpaşa or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kasımpaşa have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Aug 2022, when Fenerbahçe won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Fenerbahçe specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Kasımpaşa
2
Draws
8
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe?
From 10 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 0, Fenerbahçe have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Fenerbahçe 1-1 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Kasımpaşa at 74%, Fenerbahçe at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Kasımpaşa and 58% for Fenerbahçe. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Fenerbahçe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Kasımpaşa's games and 68% of Fenerbahçe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 58% of Fenerbahçe's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fenerbahçe run riot with a 0-6 hammering of Kasımpaşa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Kasımpaşa 0-6 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 2, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.46 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.90 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 0-6 for 6 actual goals. Kasımpaşa fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Fenerbahçe outscored their 1.90 projection by 4.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.18 / defence 1.11 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.36 / defence 0.87, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 30% | Draw 22% | Fenerbahçe 48%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 64%, Fenerbahçe 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.36. Form held, and they took the win. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.