Kasımpaşa 1-3 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 50%, yet in-form Fatih Karagümrük provide a compelling counter-argument — this Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 13 as Kasımpaşa welcome Fatih Karagümrük to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 November 2021 at 10:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kasımpaşa have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 2L across 6 games at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this term (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Kasımpaşa are significantly better at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fatih Karagümrük stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 2W 1D 3L from 6 away fixtures this term (1.17 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Fatih Karagümrük — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Kasımpaşa trading profile (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Fatih Karagümrük trading profile (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 50% versus Fatih Karagümrük 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 42% | Fatih Karagümrük 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.59 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.028 / defence 1.171 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.830 / defence 1.293. League average goals — home 1.194 / away 1.083. Fatih Karagümrük bring a strong defensive rating of 1.293 — this is suppressing Kasımpaşa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Kasımpaşa games / 12 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 50% | Draw 25% | Fatih Karagümrük 25%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Fatih Karagümrük 4.00. Kasımpaşa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kasımpaşa as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fatih Karagümrük (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Kasımpaşa 50% | Fatih Karagümrük 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 50% | Draw 25% | Fatih Karagümrük 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.59 / Fatih Karagümrük 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.028 / def 1.171 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.830 / def 1.293 | league avg home 1.194 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Fatih Karagümrük xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Kasımpaşa 1 - 3 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 50% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Fatih Karagümrük?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Kasımpaşa's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Fatih Karagümrük's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. The same calculation in reverse, Fatih Karagümrük's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
50%
2.01
25%
3.99
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.64
1.05
Fatih Karagümrük xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
17%
5.75
5%
19.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.9 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.05 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 12 games, going 2W 3D 7L for 0.75 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fatih Karagümrük sit at 1.58 PPG from 12 outings (5W 4D 3L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fatih Karagümrük carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.83 PPG clear of Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 2W 2D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.75 PPG overall — Kasımpaşa are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Fatih Karagümrük have taken 1.17 points per game from 6 outings (2W 1D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fatih Karagümrük's season.
The Goals Picture
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 1.50 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 2W 3D 7L in their last 12 games (0.75 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 5W 4D 3L in their last 12 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.33 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Kasımpaşa or Fatih Karagümrük been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kasımpaşa have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Fatih Karagümrük in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kasımpaşa and Fatih Karagümrük runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 16 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Kasımpaşa have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Jun 2023, when Fatih Karagümrük won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Fatih Karagümrük specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Kasımpaşa
2
Draws
3
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 8 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 3, Fatih Karagümrük have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2026, when Kasımpaşa 3-2 Fatih Karagümrük.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kasımpaşa see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 50%, Fatih Karagümrük 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Kasımpaşa) and 50% (Fatih Karagümrük).
On the defensive side: Kasımpaşa keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Fatih Karagümrük in 33%; Fatih Karagümrük in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Fatih Karagümrük?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Kasımpaşa's recent matches and 33% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Kasımpaşa's recent games and 50% of Fatih Karagümrük's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kasımpaşa and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fatih Karagümrük cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Kasımpaşa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fatih Karagümrük beat Kasımpaşa 1-3 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 13, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.59 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.05 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.03 / defence 1.17 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.83 / defence 1.29, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 50% | Draw 25% | Fatih Karagümrük 25%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Fatih Karagümrük win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 42%, Fatih Karagümrük 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fatih Karagümrük arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.