Kasımpaşa 2-0 Eyüpspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eyüpspor at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Eyüpspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kasımpaşa and Eyüpspor meet at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Friday 13 December 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Kasımpaşa's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kasımpaşa have posted 3W 3D 4L at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Eyüpspor have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eyüpspor away from home this season: 2W 4D 2L from 8 away games — 1.25 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Eyüpspor are 0.60 PPG clear of Kasımpaşa in recent Süper Lig fixtures (1.70 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Eyüpspor in 75%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Kasımpaşa half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 0% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Eyüpspor half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kasımpaşa 67% and Eyüpspor 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 60% | Eyüpspor 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.10 xG and Eyüpspor 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.738 / defence 1.253 | Eyüpspor attack 0.909 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.610 / away 1.229. Kasımpaşa's attack strength of 0.738 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 52 Kasımpaşa games / 15 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 28% | Draw 29% | Eyüpspor 43%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | Eyüpspor 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Eyüpspor at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Eyüpspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 60% | Eyüpspor 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 13 Dec 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 28% | Draw 29% | Eyüpspor 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.10 / Eyüpspor 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 0.738 / def 1.253 | Eyüpspor attack 0.909 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.610 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Eyüpspor (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Eyüpspor xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Eyüpspor kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 13 December 2024 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Eyüpspor?
Kasımpaşa 2 - 0 Eyüpspor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Eyüpspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Eyüpspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Eyüpspor is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 28% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Eyüpspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Eyüpspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Eyüpspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Eyüpspor in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Eyüpspor (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Kasımpaşa's attack rating (0.74) and Eyüpspor's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Eyüpspor's attack (0.91x) against Kasımpaşa's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 52/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eyüpspor Win
28%
3.52
29%
3.44
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.50
1.40
Eyüpspor xG
3.52
28%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
7%
14.31
14%
7.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 11.5 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.40 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Eyüpspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kasımpaşa's recent record stands at 4W 7D 4L from 15 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eyüpspor, meanwhile, have gone 7W 5D 3L across 15 games — 1.73 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Eyüpspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Eyüpspor by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kasımpaşa heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Kasımpaşa have managed 1W 3D 4L from 8 games — 0.75 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.27 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Eyüpspor's away record stands at 2W 4D 2L across 8 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.73 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Eyüpspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eyüpspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 1.60 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Eyüpspor in 60%.
Defensively: Eyüpspor in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Eyüpspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 4W 7D 4L in their last 15 games (1.27 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 7W 5D 3L in their last 15 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Eyüpspor away?
Eyüpspor's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 0.75 PPG; Eyüpspor away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Kasımpaşa or Eyüpspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kasımpaşa have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Eyüpspor in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kasımpaşa won 0-3 on 10 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kasımpaşa have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Eyüpspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Kasımpaşa
0
Draws
1
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Eyüpspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 3, Eyüpspor have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Eyüpspor last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Kasımpaşa 1-0 Eyüpspor.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Eyüpspor?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for Kasımpaşa, 75% for Eyüpspor — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Kasımpaşa) and 50% (Eyüpspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kasımpaşa have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Eyüpspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Kasımpaşa's games and 75% of Eyüpspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Eyüpspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 50% of Eyüpspor's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Eyüpspor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Eyüpspor in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kasımpaşa cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Eyüpspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Eyüpspor 2-0 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 16, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.10 xG and Eyüpspor 1.40 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Kasımpaşa beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Eyüpspor landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 0.74 / defence 1.25 against Eyüpspor attack 0.91 / defence 0.93, drawn from 52/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 28% | Draw 29% | Eyüpspor 43%, with Eyüpspor to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Kasımpaşa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 60%, Eyüpspor 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (15 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Eyüpspor's trading profile (15 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Eyüpspor arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.27. Form was overturned, with Kasımpaşa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.