Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 10 as Kasımpaşa welcome Beşiktaş to . Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 November 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kasımpaşa have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Kasımpaşa have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kasımpaşa at this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at . At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beşiktaş stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Beşiktaş have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Beşiktaş's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Kasımpaşa at 1.60 PPG versus Beşiktaş's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, Kasımpaşa have won 4, Beşiktaş 3, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2026, ended 1–2 with Beşiktaş winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Kasımpaşa in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games).
Beşiktaş in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 54% versus Beşiktaş 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 40% | Beşiktaş 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.17 xG and Beşiktaş 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.898 / defence 0.898 | Beşiktaş attack 0.933 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.217. Data: 37 Kasımpaşa games / 37 Beşiktaş games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 39% | Draw 29% | Beşiktaş 32%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Beşiktaş 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kasımpaşa as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 30% | Beşiktaş 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 39% | Draw 29% | Beşiktaş 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.17 / Beşiktaş 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 0.898 / def 0.898 | Beşiktaş attack 0.933 / def 0.895 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Beşiktaş xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 1 November 2026.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 39% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş?
Record (10 meetings): Kasımpaşa 4W | Draws 3 | Beşiktaş 3W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Beşiktaş (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Kasımpaşa's attack rating (0.90) and Beşiktaş's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Beşiktaş's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
39%
2.54
29%
3.44
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.19
1.02
Beşiktaş xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
14%
7.05
10%
10.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 11.4 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.3 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.02 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 37 games, going 9W 13D 15L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Beşiktaş sit at 1.78 PPG from 37 outings (19W 9D 9L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Beşiktaş, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Beşiktaş carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 5W 7D 6L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Beşiktaş have taken 1.61 points per game from 18 outings (8W 5D 5L).
The Goals Picture
Kasımpaşa are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.78 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Early Season
Beşiktaş
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 9W 13D 15L in their last 37 games (1.08 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 19W 9D 9L in their last 37 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Beşiktaş away?
Beşiktaş's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.22 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2022, when Kasımpaşa won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Beşiktaş specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Kasımpaşa
3
Draws
3
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş?
From 10 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 4, Beşiktaş have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2026, when Beşiktaş 2-1 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 44%, Beşiktaş 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 22% for Kasımpaşa and 44% for Beşiktaş.
On the defensive side: Kasımpaşa keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Beşiktaş in 33%; Kasımpaşa have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Beşiktaş?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Kasımpaşa's recent matches and 44% of Beşiktaş's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Kasımpaşa's recent games and 44% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.