Kasımpaşa 1-3 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Başakşehir (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Kasımpaşa face Başakşehir.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu plays host to Kasımpaşa versus Başakşehir in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 21 January 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Kasımpaşa (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kasımpaşa at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Başakşehir's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Başakşehir are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Başakşehir in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Başakşehir, who have claimed 3 wins from 3 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2022, ended 0–4 with Başakşehir winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Başakşehir have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Kasımpaşa — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Başakşehir — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 62% versus Başakşehir 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 61% | Başakşehir 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.33 xG and Başakşehir 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.972 / defence 1.176 | Başakşehir attack 0.995 / defence 0.843. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.359. Data: 56 Kasımpaşa games / 56 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 31% | Draw 26% | Başakşehir 43%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Başakşehir 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Başakşehir as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Başakşehir if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 60% | Başakşehir 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Jan 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 31% | Draw 26% | Başakşehir 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.33 / Başakşehir 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 0.972 / def 1.176 | Başakşehir attack 0.995 / def 0.843 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Başakşehir xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 21 January 2023 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir?
Kasımpaşa 1 - 3 Başakşehir.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 31% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir?
Record (3 meetings): Kasımpaşa 0W | Draws 0 | Başakşehir 3W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Başakşehir (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Kasımpaşa's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Başakşehir's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. Flip it around — Başakşehir's attack (0.99x) against Kasımpaşa's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
31%
3.21
26%
3.86
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.92
1.59
Başakşehir xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
20%
4.90
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
6%
15.73
11%
8.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.6 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.4 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.59 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 56 games, going 20W 12D 24L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-D. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Başakşehir sit at 1.77 PPG from 56 outings (29W 12D 15L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Başakşehir carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 10W 5D 12L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Başakşehir have taken 1.44 points per game from 27 outings (10W 9D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.48 scored and 0.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Başakşehir in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 20W 12D 24L in their last 56 games (1.29 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 29W 12D 15L in their last 56 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Başakşehir away?
Başakşehir's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.30 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Kasımpaşa or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kasımpaşa have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Başakşehir go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Başakşehir won 4-0 on 8 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kasımpaşa have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Başakşehir — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Kasımpaşa
1
Draws
9
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir?
From 10 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 0, Başakşehir have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Başakşehir 4-0 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 26% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 70%, Başakşehir 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Kasımpaşa) and 44% (Başakşehir). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Başakşehir?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Kasımpaşa's games and 59% of Başakşehir's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 44% of Başakşehir's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Başakşehir cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Kasımpaşa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Kasımpaşa 1-3 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 20, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.33 xG and Başakşehir 1.59 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Başakşehir outscored their 1.59 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 0.97 / defence 1.18 against Başakşehir attack 0.99 / defence 0.84, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 31% | Draw 26% | Başakşehir 43%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 61%, Başakşehir 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Başakşehir's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.