Kasımpaşa 3-1 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 36 as Kasımpaşa welcome Antalyaspor to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 May 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kasımpaşa have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kasımpaşa have posted 4W 3D 3L at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Antalyaspor stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Antalyaspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Kasımpaşa) versus 1.10 (Antalyaspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Kasımpaşa, 1 for Antalyaspor and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Kasımpaşa trading profile (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Antalyaspor trading profile (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 59% versus Antalyaspor 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 62% | Antalyaspor 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.68 xG and Antalyaspor 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.959 / defence 1.178 | Antalyaspor attack 0.885 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.234. Data: 71 Kasımpaşa games / 71 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 45% | Draw 27% | Antalyaspor 28%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Antalyaspor 3.57. Kasımpaşa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kasımpaşa at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 50% | Antalyaspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 45% | Draw 27% | Antalyaspor 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.68 / Antalyaspor 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 0.959 / def 1.178 | Antalyaspor attack 0.885 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.553 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Antalyaspor xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor?
Kasımpaşa 3 - 1 Antalyaspor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 45% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor?
Record (5 meetings): Kasımpaşa 2W | Draws 2 | Antalyaspor 1W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Antalyaspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Kasımpaşa's attack rating (0.96) and Antalyaspor's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Antalyaspor's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
45%
2.22
27%
3.65
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.97
1.29
Antalyaspor xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
19%
5.39
Win to Nil
12%
8.03
5%
19.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.1 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.29 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kasımpaşa's recent record stands at 26W 14D 31L from 71 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Antalyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 22W 20D 29L across 71 games — 1.21 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kasımpaşa on 1.30 PPG, Antalyaspor on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Kasımpaşa have managed 14W 7D 14L from 35 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Antalyaspor's away record stands at 7W 9D 19L across 35 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kasımpaşa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.21 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 71 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Current Season
Antalyaspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 26W 14D 31L in their last 71 games (1.30 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 22W 20D 29L in their last 71 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Antalyaspor away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.40 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Antalyaspor specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Kasımpaşa
4
Draws
3
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 3, Antalyaspor have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Kasımpaşa 0-0 Antalyaspor.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 66%, Antalyaspor 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Kasımpaşa) and 40% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Antalyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Kasımpaşa's games and 49% of Antalyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Kasımpaşa's recent games and 40% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kasımpaşa cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Antalyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Antalyaspor 3-1 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 36, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.68 xG and Antalyaspor 1.29 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Kasımpaşa beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 0.96 / defence 1.18 against Antalyaspor attack 0.89 / defence 1.13, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 45% | Draw 27% | Antalyaspor 28%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 62%, Antalyaspor 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.30 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kasımpaşa win broke the near-deadlock. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.66 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.