Hatayspor 0-0 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hatayspor at 68%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hatayspor vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rizespor make the trip to Yeni Hatay Stadyumu to face Hatayspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Sunday 23 January 2022 at 10:30 UTC.
Form
Hatayspor (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu, Hatayspor have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Hatayspor are significantly better at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Rizespor have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rizespor away from home this season: 0W 1D 9L from 10 away games — 0.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Hatayspor against 1.40 for Rizespor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Hatayspor lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 2–0 with Hatayspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Hatayspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games).
Rizespor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 50% versus Rizespor 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatayspor 59% | Rizespor 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 2.35 xG and Rizespor 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 1.198 / defence 1.445 | Rizespor attack 0.592 / defence 1.666. League average goals — home 1.180 / away 1.099. Rizespor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.666 — this is suppressing Hatayspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Hatayspor games / 22 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 68% | Draw 19% | Rizespor 13%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 1.47 | Draw 5.26 | Rizespor 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Hatayspor (68%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hatayspor are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.29 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Hatayspor 70% | Rizespor 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Yeni Hatay Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Jan 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 68% | Draw 19% | Rizespor 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 56% | xG Hatayspor 2.35 / Rizespor 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 1.198 / def 1.445 | Rizespor attack 0.592 / def 1.666 | league avg home 1.180 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Hatayspor (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.35
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Rizespor xG
56%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Rizespor kick off?
Hatayspor vs Rizespor kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 23 January 2022 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Rizespor?
Hatayspor 0 - 0 Rizespor.
Where is Hatayspor vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Rizespor part of?
Hatayspor vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 68% chance of winning, Rizespor a 13% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Hatayspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Hatayspor and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Rizespor?
Record (1 meetings): Hatayspor 1W | Draws 0 | Rizespor 0W.
What form are Hatayspor and Rizespor in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Rizespor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Hatayspor's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Rizespor's defensive record (1.67x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.35. Flip it around — Rizespor's attack (0.59x) against Hatayspor's defence (1.45x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hatayspor Win
68%
1.46
19%
5.39
13%
7.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.35
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
3.29
0.94
Rizespor xG
1.46
68%
Home win
5.39
19%
Draw
7.71
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
9%
10.54
Win to Nil
27%
3.74
1%
81.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.7 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 2.35 expected goals for Hatayspor and 0.94 for Rizespor, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Rizespor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hatayspor's recent record stands at 11W 2D 9L from 22 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rizespor, meanwhile, have gone 6W 3D 13L across 22 games — 0.95 PPG, with D-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hatayspor by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rizespor heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Hatayspor have managed 6W 1D 3L from 10 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rizespor's away record stands at 0W 1D 9L across 10 trips, a 0.10 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.95 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rizespor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hatayspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hatayspor are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 0.95 scored and 1.77 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 11W 2D 9L in their last 22 games (1.59 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 6W 3D 13L in their last 22 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Rizespor away?
Hatayspor's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 1.90 PPG; Rizespor away: 0.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Rizespor have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rizespor won 5-2 on 31 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hatayspor have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Rizespor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Hatayspor
1
Draws
3
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Rizespor?
From 6 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 2, Rizespor have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2025, when Rizespor 5-2 Hatayspor.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Rizespor?
Rizespor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatayspor 70%, Rizespor 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Hatayspor and 70% for Rizespor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rizespor in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Rizespor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Hatayspor's games and 40% of Rizespor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hatayspor vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Hatayspor's matches and 70% of Rizespor's.
Do Hatayspor and Rizespor tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Hatayspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu, Regular Season - 23, as Hatayspor and Rizespor drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 2.35 xG and Rizespor 0.94 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Hatayspor fell 2.4 short of their projected output. Rizespor landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 1.20 / defence 1.45 against Rizespor attack 0.59 / defence 1.67, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 68% | Draw 19% | Rizespor 13%, with Hatayspor to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 59%, Rizespor 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Rizespor's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Hatayspor arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hatayspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Rizespor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.