Hatayspor 3-1 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Konyaspor at 43% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hatayspor vs Konyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mersin Stadyumu plays host to Hatayspor versus Konyaspor in Süper Lig (matchday 8). Kick-off: Sunday 8 October 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Current Form
Hatayspor's record over their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Last five: D D D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Hatayspor's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 home games (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.10 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Konyaspor (all games): 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Konyaspor have posted 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Konyaspor have the stronger record — 4 wins to Hatayspor's 0, with 0 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 12 Mar 2023, ended Hatayspor 0–3 Konyaspor — a Konyaspor win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Konyaspor have won 4 of 4 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Hatayspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they fail to score in 63% of games.
Konyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 30% versus Konyaspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatayspor 70% | Konyaspor 46%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Hatayspor surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Konyaspor have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 56% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Konyaspor surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Hatayspor recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 1.21 xG and Konyaspor 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 1.000 / defence 1.237 | Konyaspor attack 1.050 / defence 0.830. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 1.237. Hatayspor's defence rating of 1.237 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Konyaspor's projected output up. Data: built from Hatayspor's last 43 games and Konyaspor's last 43.
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 26% | Draw 31% | Konyaspor 43%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 3.91 | Draw 3.21 | Konyaspor 2.31. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Konyaspor as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Konyaspor 4 wins from 4 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Hatayspor's last 10 home games and Konyaspor's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Hatayspor 20% (last 10 home games) | Konyaspor 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 8 | Venue: Mersin Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 8 October 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 26% | Draw 31% | Konyaspor 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Hatayspor 1.21 / Konyaspor 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 1.000 / def 1.237 | Konyaspor attack 1.050 / def 0.830 | league avg home 1.463 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Konyaspor xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hatayspor vs Konyaspor FAQs
What time does Hatayspor vs Konyaspor kick off?
Hatayspor vs Konyaspor kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 8 October 2023 at Mersin Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Konyaspor?
Hatayspor 3 - 1 Konyaspor.
Where is Hatayspor vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Mersin Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Konyaspor part of?
Hatayspor vs Konyaspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 8) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 26% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 43% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Hatayspor and Konyaspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hatayspor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Hatayspor's attack at 1.00x the league average against Konyaspor's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (1.05x) against Hatayspor's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from Hatayspor's last 43 games and Konyaspor's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
26%
3.91
31%
3.21
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
2.82
1.61
Konyaspor xG
3.91
26%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
20%
4.99
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
5%
19.48
13%
7.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.6 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.6 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hatayspor vs Konyaspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Hatayspor and 1.61 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hatayspor come into this having played 43 games, going 8W 10D 25L for 0.79 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-D.
On the other side, Konyaspor sit at 1.40 PPG from 43 outings (14W 18D 11L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-L across their last five.
Konyaspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Hatayspor's home form reads 5W 6D 10L across their last 21 home games, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Konyaspor have taken 1.57 points per game from their last 21 away games (8W 9D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hatayspor are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.30 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Early Season
Konyaspor
Early Season
Hatayspor (Home) vs Konyaspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hatayspor
Early Season
Konyaspor
Early Season
❓ Hatayspor vs Konyaspor Form FAQs
What form are Hatayspor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 8W 10D 25L in their last 43 games (0.79 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 14W 18D 11L in their last 43 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Konyaspor away?
Konyaspor's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 1.00 PPG; Konyaspor away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Hatayspor or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hatayspor have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 18 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Konyaspor won Hatayspor 0-3 Konyaspor on 12 Mar 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hatayspor have gone 1W 0D 3L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Hatayspor
1
Draws
6
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Hatayspor vs Konyaspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Konyaspor?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Hatayspor have won 1, Konyaspor have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Konyaspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 April 2025: Hatayspor 2-3 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Konyaspor?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 80% of those situations.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatayspor 38%, Konyaspor 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Hatayspor and 57% for Konyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Konyaspor in 33%; Hatayspor have failed to score in 52% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hatayspor vs Konyaspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hatayspor and Konyaspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Hatayspor's recent matches and 52% of Konyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hatayspor and Konyaspor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Hatayspor's matches and 57% of Konyaspor's.
Do Hatayspor and Konyaspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Hatayspor's recent matches and 68% of Konyaspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hatayspor cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Konyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hatayspor beat Konyaspor 3-1 at Mersin Stadyumu, Regular Season - 8, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.21 xG and Konyaspor 1.61 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Hatayspor beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 1.00 / defence 1.24 against Konyaspor attack 1.05 / defence 0.83, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 26% | Draw 31% | Konyaspor 43%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Hatayspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 70%, Konyaspor 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did.
Konyaspor's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Konyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.79. Form was overturned, with Hatayspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hatayspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Konyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.