Hatayspor 0-0 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kasımpaşa at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Kasımpaşa travel to Mersin Stadyumu to take on Hatayspor in Süper Lig (matchday 2). The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 August 2023 at 20:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Hatayspor stand at 1W 0D 9L — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Hatayspor's form when playing at home: 2W 0D 8L across their last 10 home games (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Kasımpaşa — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Kasımpaşa's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Kasımpaşa are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Hatayspor's 10% BTTS rate and Kasımpaşa's 30% (from Hatayspor's last 10 home games and Kasımpaşa's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Hatayspor, 2 for Kasımpaşa and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Feb 2023, ended Hatayspor 1–0 Kasımpaşa — a Hatayspor win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hatayspor trading profile (last 37 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); they fail to score in 62% of games.
Kasımpaşa trading profile (last 37 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 47% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 30% versus Kasımpaşa 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hatayspor 76% | Kasımpaşa 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 1.07 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 0.711 / defence 1.287 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.915 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.363. Hatayspor's attack rating of 0.711 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.07. Hatayspor's defence rating of 1.287 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Kasımpaşa's projected output up. Data: built from Hatayspor's last 37 games and Kasımpaşa's last 37. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 23% | Draw 29% | Kasımpaşa 48%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 4.29 | Draw 3.43 | Kasımpaşa 2.10. Kasımpaşa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Both teams scored in only 10% of Hatayspor's last 10 home games and 30% of Kasımpaşa's last 10 away games, but Poisson BTTS probability is 55% — the model's attack ratings are higher than recent results suggest.
Poisson rates Kasımpaşa as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hatayspor's last 10 home games and Kasımpaşa's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Hatayspor 10% (last 10 home games) | Kasımpaşa 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
The Poisson model's sample (Hatayspor 37 games, Kasımpaşa 37) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 2 | Venue: Mersin Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 19 August 2023 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 23% | Draw 29% | Kasımpaşa 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Hatayspor 1.07 / Kasımpaşa 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 0.711 / def 1.287 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.915 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Kasımpaşa xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa FAQs
What time does Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Saturday 19 August 2023 at Mersin Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Hatayspor 0 - 0 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Mersin Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 2) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 23% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 48% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Hatayspor and Kasımpaşa will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hatayspor's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Kasımpaşa's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Hatayspor's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hatayspor's last 37 games and Kasımpaşa's last 37, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
23%
4.29
29%
3.43
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
2.68
1.60
Kasımpaşa xG
4.29
23%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
20%
4.98
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
5%
21.37
16%
6.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 11.0 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Hatayspor and 1.60 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hatayspor's recent record stands at 7W 5D 25L from 37 games, a 0.70 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Kasımpaşa, meanwhile, have gone 13W 7D 17L across 37 games — 1.24 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kasımpaşa by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hatayspor heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hatayspor have managed 4W 4D 10L from their last 18 home games — 0.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kasımpaşa's away record stands at 5W 4D 9L across their last 18 away games, a 1.06 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Hatayspor are averaging 0.65 goals scored and 2.27 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.30 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hatayspor have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games.
Last 37 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Early Season
Kasımpaşa
Early Season
Hatayspor (Home) vs Kasımpaşa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hatayspor
Early Season
Kasımpaşa
Early Season
❓ Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa Form FAQs
What form are Hatayspor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 7W 5D 25L in their last 37 games (0.70 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 13W 7D 17L in their last 37 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Kasımpaşa's away record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 0.89 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 27 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Jan 2024, when Kasımpaşa won Kasımpaşa 3-0 Hatayspor.
Hatayspor's record when hosting Kasımpaşa specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Hatayspor
3
Draws
4
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Kasımpaşa?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Hatayspor have won 1, Kasımpaşa have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 January 2025: Kasımpaşa 5-4 Hatayspor.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Kasımpaşa?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Kasımpaşa see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatayspor 33%, Kasımpaşa 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Hatayspor and 56% for Kasımpaşa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 11% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hatayspor have failed to score in 56% of games; Kasımpaşa in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hatayspor and Kasımpaşa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Hatayspor's recent matches and 39% of Kasımpaşa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hatayspor and Kasımpaşa matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Hatayspor's matches and 56% of Kasımpaşa's.
Do Hatayspor and Kasımpaşa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Hatayspor's recent matches and 47% of Kasımpaşa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Hatayspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hatayspor and Kasımpaşa finished level at 0-0 at Mersin Stadyumu, Regular Season - 2, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.07 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.60 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Hatayspor fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Kasımpaşa landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 0.71 / defence 1.29 against Kasımpaşa attack 0.92 / defence 1.02, drawn from 37/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 23% | Draw 29% | Kasımpaşa 48%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 76%, Kasımpaşa 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 62% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Kasımpaşa arrived the stronger side — 1.24 PPG against 0.70. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hatayspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.