Giresunspor 0-0 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Giresunspor vs Beşiktaş fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Giresunspor host Beşiktaş at Çotanak Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 17 April 2022 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Giresunspor — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Giresunspor have posted 5W 1D 4L at Çotanak Stadyumu — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beşiktaş stand at 3W 6D 1L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Beşiktaş have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Giresunspor) versus 1.50 (Beşiktaş). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Giresunspor, 0 for Beşiktaş and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 4–0 with Giresunspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Giresunspor in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Beşiktaş in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Giresunspor 50% versus Beşiktaş 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Giresunspor 44% | Beşiktaş 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Giresunspor 1.31 xG and Beşiktaş 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Giresunspor attack 0.931 / defence 1.269 | Beşiktaş attack 0.899 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.252 / away 1.210. Data: 32 Giresunspor games / 32 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Giresunspor 34% | Draw 29% | Beşiktaş 37%. Fair-value odds: Giresunspor 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Beşiktaş 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beşiktaş are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Giresunspor 70% | Beşiktaş 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Giresunspor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Çotanak Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Apr 2022, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Giresunspor 34% | Draw 29% | Beşiktaş 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Giresunspor 1.31 / Beşiktaş 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Giresunspor attack 0.931 / def 1.269 | Beşiktaş attack 0.899 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.252 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Giresunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Beşiktaş xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Giresunspor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Giresunspor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 17 April 2022 at Çotanak Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Giresunspor vs Beşiktaş?
Giresunspor 0 - 0 Beşiktaş.
Where is Giresunspor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Çotanak Stadyumu.
What competition is Giresunspor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Giresunspor vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Giresunspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Giresunspor a 34% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Giresunspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Giresunspor and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Giresunspor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Giresunspor and Beşiktaş?
Record (1 meetings): Giresunspor 1W | Draws 0 | Beşiktaş 0W.
What form are Giresunspor and Beşiktaş in?
Giresunspor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Beşiktaş (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Giresunspor's attack at 0.93x the league average against Beşiktaş's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Beşiktaş's attack versus Giresunspor's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
34%
2.97
29%
3.40
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Giresunspor xG
Total xG
2.69
1.38
Beşiktaş xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
8%
11.79
10%
10.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.3 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Giresunspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Giresunspor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Giresunspor and 1.38 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Giresunspor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 32 outings, Giresunspor have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 11W 6D 15L record — W-W-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Beşiktaş's form line: 13W 11D 8L from 32 games, 1.56 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Giresunspor on 1.22 PPG, Beşiktaş on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Giresunspor have posted 1.31 PPG from 16 outings (6W 3D 7L).
On the road, Beşiktaş have gone 3W 7D 6L from 16 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Beşiktaş's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Giresunspor are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.53 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş in 62%.
Last 32 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Giresunspor
Current Season
Beşiktaş
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Giresunspor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Giresunspor have gone 11W 6D 15L in their last 32 games (1.22 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 13W 11D 8L in their last 32 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Giresunspor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Giresunspor's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Giresunspor at home: 1.31 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Beşiktaş go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when Giresunspor won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Giresunspor's record when hosting Beşiktaş specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Giresunspor
1
Draws
2
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Giresunspor and Beşiktaş?
From 4 meetings on record, Giresunspor have won 1, Beşiktaş have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Giresunspor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2023, when Beşiktaş 3-1 Giresunspor.
Who has won more matches between Giresunspor and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Giresunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Giresunspor 56%, Beşiktaş 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Giresunspor) and 44% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Giresunspor have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Giresunspor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Giresunspor play Beşiktaş?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Giresunspor's games and 69% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Giresunspor vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Giresunspor's recent games and 44% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Giresunspor and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Giresunspor have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Giresunspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Çotanak Stadyumu, Regular Season - 33, as Giresunspor and Beşiktaş drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Giresunspor 1.31 xG and Beşiktaş 1.38 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Giresunspor fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Beşiktaş landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Giresunspor attack 0.93 / defence 1.27 against Beşiktaş attack 0.90 / defence 1.13, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Giresunspor 34% | Draw 29% | Beşiktaş 37%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Giresunspor 44%, Beşiktaş 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Giresunspor's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Giresunspor 1.22 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Giresunspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.