Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1-2 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gençlerbirliği S.K. at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 5 as Gençlerbirliği S.K. welcome Kasımpaşa to Eryaman Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 September 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Gençlerbirliği S.K. — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Gençlerbirliği S.K. have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Gençlerbirliği S.K. have posted 4W 3D 3L at Eryaman Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kasımpaşa stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Kasımpaşa have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kasımpaşa's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Gençlerbirliği S.K. at 1.60 PPG versus Kasımpaşa's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Gençlerbirliği S.K. register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Kasımpaşa in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Gençlerbirliği S.K., 0 for Kasımpaşa and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2026, ended 3–2 with Gençlerbirliği S.K. winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Gençlerbirliği S.K. in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Kasımpaşa in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gençlerbirliği S.K. 50% versus Kasımpaşa 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gençlerbirliği S.K. 53% | Kasımpaşa 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.29 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 0.968 / defence 0.995 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.949 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.276. Data: 38 Gençlerbirliği S.K. games / 38 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 38% | Draw 27% | Kasımpaşa 35%. Fair-value odds: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Kasımpaşa 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gençlerbirliği S.K. at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gençlerbirliği S.K. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 60% | Kasımpaşa 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Eryaman Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Sep 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 38% | Draw 27% | Kasımpaşa 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.29 / Kasımpaşa 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 0.968 / def 0.995 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.949 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Gençlerbirliği S.K. (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Gençlerbirliği S.K. xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Kasımpaşa xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 13 September 2026 at Eryaman Stadium.
What was the final score in Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Kasımpaşa?
Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1 - 2 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Eryaman Stadium.
What competition is Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Gençlerbirliği S.K. a 38% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Gençlerbirliği S.K. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Kasımpaşa?
Record (2 meetings): Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1W | Draws 1 | Kasımpaşa 0W.
What form are Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Kasımpaşa in?
Gençlerbirliği S.K. (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s attack rating (0.97) and Kasımpaşa's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gençlerbirliği S.K. Win
38%
2.60
27%
3.70
35%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Gençlerbirliği S.K. xG
Total xG
2.49
1.21
Kasımpaşa xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.90
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
12%
8.68
10%
10.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.8 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Gençlerbirliği S.K. and 1.21 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gençlerbirliği S.K. come into this having played 38 games, going 11W 8D 19L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Gençlerbirliği S.K., so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Kasımpaşa sit at 1.08 PPG from 38 outings (9W 14D 15L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gençlerbirliği S.K. on 1.08 PPG, Kasımpaşa on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s home form reads 8W 5D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Gençlerbirliği S.K. are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Kasımpaşa have taken 0.95 points per game from 19 outings (4W 6D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gençlerbirliği S.K. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gençlerbirliği S.K. are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.00 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Early Season
Kasımpaşa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Gençlerbirliği S.K. have gone 11W 8D 19L in their last 38 games (1.08 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 9W 14D 15L in their last 38 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gençlerbirliği S.K. at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gençlerbirliği S.K. at home: 1.53 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s record when hosting Kasımpaşa specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1
Draws
1
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Kasımpaşa?
From 3 meetings on record, Gençlerbirliği S.K. have won 1, Kasımpaşa have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1-2 Kasımpaşa.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gençlerbirliği S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gençlerbirliği S.K. 63%, Kasımpaşa 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Gençlerbirliği S.K.) and 58% (Kasımpaşa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kasımpaşa in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gençlerbirliği S.K. home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gençlerbirliği S.K. play Kasımpaşa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s games and 63% of Kasımpaşa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s matches and 58% of Kasımpaşa's.
Do Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Gençlerbirliği S.K. have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kasımpaşa defy the odds to beat Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1-2 at Eryaman Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.29 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.21 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 0.97 / defence 0.99 against Kasımpaşa attack 0.95 / defence 0.88, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gençlerbirliği S.K. 38% | Draw 27% | Kasımpaşa 35%, with Gençlerbirliği S.K. to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Kasımpaşa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gençlerbirliği S.K. 53%, Kasımpaşa 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.08 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kasımpaşa win broke the near-deadlock. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.