Gaziantep FK 2-1 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gaziantep FK at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gaziantep FK vs Sivasspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Sivasspor travel to Kalyon Stadyumu to take on Gaziantep FK. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 February 2025, 10:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Gaziantep FK — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gaziantep FK's home record at Kalyon Stadyumu: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kalyon Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Gaziantep FK are significantly better at Kalyon Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Sivasspor have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sivasspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Gaziantep FK are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Gaziantep FK, 3 for Sivasspor and 3 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2024, ended 2–3 with Sivasspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Gaziantep FK trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Sivasspor trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 51% versus Sivasspor 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 52% | Sivasspor 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.56 xG and Sivasspor 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 0.775 / defence 0.637 | Sivasspor attack 0.783 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 1.654 / away 1.213. Gaziantep FK's attack strength of 0.775 is below the league average — the 1.56 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sivasspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.216 — this is suppressing Gaziantep FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Gaziantep FK's defence rating of 0.637 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 Gaziantep FK games / 60 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 59% | Draw 28% | Sivasspor 13%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 1.69 | Draw 3.57 | Sivasspor 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Gaziantep FK (59%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Sivasspor lead the H2H ledger, but Gaziantep FK carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Gaziantep FK as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Gaziantep FK 30% | Sivasspor 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Kalyon Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Feb 2025, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 59% | Draw 28% | Sivasspor 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 37% | xG Gaziantep FK 1.56 / Sivasspor 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 0.775 / def 0.637 | Sivasspor attack 0.783 / def 1.216 | league avg home 1.654 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Gaziantep FK (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
0.60
Sivasspor xG
37%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Sivasspor kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Sivasspor kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 15 February 2025 at Kalyon Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Sivasspor?
Gaziantep FK 2 - 1 Sivasspor.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Kalyon Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Sivasspor part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 59% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 13% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Gaziantep FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Gaziantep FK vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Sivasspor?
Record (7 meetings): Gaziantep FK 1W | Draws 3 | Sivasspor 3W.
What form are Gaziantep FK and Sivasspor in?
Gaziantep FK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Sivasspor (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Gaziantep FK's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Sivasspor's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, Sivasspor's attack versus Gaziantep FK's defence, projects 0.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 16.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.0%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gaziantep FK Win
59%
1.70
28%
3.52
13%
7.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.0%
Home win
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
2.16
0.60
Sivasspor xG
1.70
59%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
7.92
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.67
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
55%
1.83
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
32%
3.11
3%
37.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 6.9 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.9 | 10.8 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.0 | 8.4 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 0.60 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Sivasspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gaziantep FK's recent record stands at 19W 13D 27L from 59 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sivasspor, meanwhile, have gone 20W 16D 23L across 59 games — 1.29 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gaziantep FK on 1.19 PPG, Sivasspor on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Gaziantep FK have managed 12W 9D 8L from 29 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sivasspor's away record stands at 9W 5D 15L across 29 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gaziantep FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gaziantep FK are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.22 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Blended
Sivasspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gaziantep FK and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 19W 13D 27L in their last 59 games (1.19 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 20W 16D 23L in their last 59 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gaziantep FK at home or Sivasspor away?
Gaziantep FK's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gaziantep FK at home: 1.55 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gaziantep FK and Sivasspor runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Feb 2022, when Gaziantep FK won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gaziantep FK's record when hosting Sivasspor specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Gaziantep FK
3
Draws
3
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Sivasspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Gaziantep FK have won 2, Sivasspor have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Gaziantep FK 2-1 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Gaziantep FK and Sivasspor?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gaziantep FK 38%, Sivasspor 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Gaziantep FK) and 59% (Sivasspor).
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Gaziantep FK have failed to score in 31% of games; Sivasspor in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gaziantep FK play Sivasspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Gaziantep FK's recent matches and 55% of Sivasspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gaziantep FK vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Gaziantep FK's recent games and 59% of Sivasspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gaziantep FK and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Gaziantep FK have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gaziantep FK edge out Sivasspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gaziantep FK beat Sivasspor 2-1 at Kalyon Stadyumu, Regular Season - 24, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.56 xG and Sivasspor 0.60 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 0.78 / defence 0.64 against Sivasspor attack 0.78 / defence 1.22, drawn from 59/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 59% | Draw 28% | Sivasspor 13%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 52%, Sivasspor 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Sivasspor's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gaziantep FK 1.19 PPG, Sivasspor 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gaziantep FK win broke the near-deadlock. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.