Gaziantep FK 1-1 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Gaziantep FK at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Gaziantep FK face Samsunspor.

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Analysis

Samsunspor make the trip to Kalyon Stadyumu to face Gaziantep FK in Süper Lig (matchday 26). The match kicks off on Sunday 18 February 2024 at 13:00 UK time.

Form

Gaziantep FK (all games): 2W 6D 2L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Gaziantep FK at home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Samsunspor's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

On the road, Samsunspor have gone 1W 2D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Gaziantep FK against 1.50 for Samsunspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for Gaziantep FK, 0 for Samsunspor and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 29 Sep 2023, ended Gaziantep FK 2–1 Samsunspor — a Gaziantep FK win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Gaziantep FK half-time and goal-timing data (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Samsunspor half-time and goal-timing data (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 48% versus Samsunspor 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 52% | Samsunspor 40%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Gaziantep FK surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while Samsunspor have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 42% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.33 xG and Samsunspor 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 0.791 / defence 1.122 | Samsunspor attack 0.792 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.176. Gaziantep FK's attack rating of 0.791 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.33. Samsunspor's attack rating of 0.792 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.04. Data: built from Gaziantep FK's last 60 games and Samsunspor's last 25.

Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 40% | Draw 33% | Samsunspor 26%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 2.49 | Draw 3.00 | Samsunspor 3.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Gaziantep FK are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gaziantep FK if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Gaziantep FK 50% (last 10 home games) | Samsunspor 60% (last 10 away games).

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