Gaziantep FK 1-0 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gaziantep FK at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gaziantep FK vs Rizespor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gaziantep FK and Rizespor meet at Gaziantep Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Monday 9 December 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Gaziantep FK's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gaziantep FK's home record at Gaziantep Stadyumu: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Gaziantep FK are significantly better at Gaziantep Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Rizespor have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rizespor's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Gaziantep FK lead 3W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Mar 2024, ended 1–3 with Rizespor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Gaziantep FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Rizespor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 55% versus Rizespor 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 55% | Rizespor 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.77 xG and Rizespor 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 1.050 / defence 0.796 | Rizespor attack 0.931 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.617 / away 1.238. Gaziantep FK's defence rating of 0.796 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 51 Gaziantep FK games / 51 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 56% | Draw 26% | Rizespor 18%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Rizespor 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Gaziantep FK (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Gaziantep FK as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Gaziantep FK 50% | Rizespor 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Gaziantep Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 9 Dec 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 56% | Draw 26% | Rizespor 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG Gaziantep FK 1.77 / Rizespor 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 1.050 / def 0.796 | Rizespor attack 0.931 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.617 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Gaziantep FK (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Rizespor xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Rizespor kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Rizespor kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 9 December 2024 at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Rizespor?
Gaziantep FK 1 - 0 Rizespor.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Rizespor part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 56% chance of winning, Rizespor a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Gaziantep FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Gaziantep FK vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Rizespor?
Record (4 meetings): Gaziantep FK 3W | Draws 0 | Rizespor 1W.
What form are Gaziantep FK and Rizespor in?
Gaziantep FK (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Rizespor (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Gaziantep FK's attack at 1.05x the league average against Rizespor's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rizespor's attack (0.93x) against Gaziantep FK's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gaziantep FK Win
56%
1.78
26%
3.91
18%
5.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
2.69
0.92
Rizespor xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
5.52
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
17%
5.86
Win to Nil
22%
4.45
3%
32.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 11.1 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 0.92 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Rizespor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Gaziantep FK's recent record stands at 16W 11D 24L from 51 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rizespor, meanwhile, have gone 20W 9D 22L across 51 games — 1.35 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Gaziantep FK against 1.35 for Rizespor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Gaziantep FK have managed 9W 8D 8L from 25 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rizespor's away record stands at 6W 3D 16L across 25 trips, a 0.84 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.35 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rizespor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gaziantep FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Gaziantep FK are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.24 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gaziantep FK and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 16W 11D 24L in their last 51 games (1.16 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 20W 9D 22L in their last 51 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gaziantep FK at home or Rizespor away?
Gaziantep FK's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gaziantep FK at home: 1.40 PPG; Rizespor away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Rizespor have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gaziantep FK have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rizespor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Gaziantep FK
1
Draws
4
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Rizespor?
From 9 meetings on record, Gaziantep FK have won 4, Rizespor have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Gaziantep FK 1-2 Rizespor.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gaziantep FK 48%, Rizespor 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Gaziantep FK) and 68% (Rizespor).
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK have failed to score in 28% of games; Rizespor in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gaziantep FK play Rizespor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Gaziantep FK's recent matches and 52% of Rizespor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gaziantep FK vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Gaziantep FK's recent games and 68% of Rizespor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gaziantep FK and Rizespor tend to score early?
Gaziantep FK have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gaziantep FK edge out Rizespor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gaziantep FK beat Rizespor 1-0 at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Regular Season - 15, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.77 xG and Rizespor 0.92 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rizespor landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 1.05 / defence 0.80 against Rizespor attack 0.93 / defence 1.04, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 56% | Draw 26% | Rizespor 18%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 55%, Rizespor 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Rizespor's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gaziantep FK 1.16 PPG, Rizespor 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gaziantep FK win broke the near-deadlock. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Rizespor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.