Gaziantep FK 2-2 Pendikspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gaziantep FK at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gaziantep FK vs Pendikspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gaziantep FK and Pendikspor meet at Kalyon Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Friday 5 January 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Gaziantep FK's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Gaziantep FK have posted 3W 1D 6L at Kalyon Stadyumu — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Pendikspor (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pendikspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Pendikspor have posted 2W 2D 5L from 9 away outings — 0.89 PPG. Away from home they average 1.22 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Gaziantep FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Pendikspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 35% versus Pendikspor 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 53% | Pendikspor 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.89 xG and Pendikspor 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 0.825 / defence 1.136 | Pendikspor attack 0.922 / defence 1.485. League average goals — home 1.544 / away 1.255. Pendikspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.485 — this is suppressing Gaziantep FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Gaziantep FK games / 17 Pendikspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 50% | Draw 25% | Pendikspor 25%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Pendikspor 4.00. Gaziantep FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Gaziantep FK as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gaziantep FK if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Gaziantep FK 30% | Pendikspor 78%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Pendikspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Kalyon Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 5 Jan 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 50% | Draw 25% | Pendikspor 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Gaziantep FK 1.89 / Pendikspor 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 0.825 / def 1.136 | Pendikspor attack 0.922 / def 1.485 | league avg home 1.544 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Gaziantep FK (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Pendikspor xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Pendikspor kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Pendikspor kicked off at 14:00 on Friday 5 January 2024 at Kalyon Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Pendikspor?
Gaziantep FK 2 - 2 Pendikspor.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Pendikspor being played?
The match is being played at Kalyon Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Pendikspor part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Pendikspor is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Pendikspor?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 50% chance of winning, Pendikspor a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Gaziantep FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Pendikspor?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Pendikspor will score (BTTS).
Will Gaziantep FK vs Pendikspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Pendikspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gaziantep FK and Pendikspor in?
Gaziantep FK (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Pendikspor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Gaziantep FK's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Pendikspor's defensive record (1.49x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.89. Flip it around — Pendikspor's attack (0.92x) against Gaziantep FK's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 52/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gaziantep FK Win
50%
2.01
25%
4.04
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
3.21
1.31
Pendikspor xG
2.01
50%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
15%
6.63
Win to Nil
13%
7.47
4%
26.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.1 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Pendikspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Pendikspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 1.31 for Pendikspor, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Pendikspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gaziantep FK come into this having played 17 games, going 6W 1D 10L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-W. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pendikspor sit at 0.82 PPG from 17 outings (3W 5D 9L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Pendikspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Gaziantep FK against 0.82 for Pendikspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Gaziantep FK's home form reads 3W 1D 4L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Pendikspor have taken 0.88 points per game from 8 outings (2W 1D 5L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gaziantep FK are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Pendikspor are on 1.06 scored and 2.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pendikspor in 71%.
Last 17 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Blended
Pendikspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gaziantep FK and Pendikspor in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 6W 1D 10L in their last 17 games (1.12 PPG), while Pendikspor have gone 3W 5D 9L in their last 17 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gaziantep FK at home or Pendikspor away?
Gaziantep FK's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gaziantep FK at home: 1.25 PPG; Pendikspor away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since January 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Gaziantep FK
1
Draws
0
Pendikspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Pendikspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Gaziantep FK have won 1, Pendikspor have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Pendikspor last play each other?
They last met on 26 May 2024, when Pendikspor 0-1 Gaziantep FK.
Who has won more matches between Gaziantep FK and Pendikspor?
Gaziantep FK have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Pendikspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gaziantep FK 38%, Pendikspor 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Gaziantep FK and 75% for Pendikspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Pendikspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gaziantep FK play Pendikspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 38% of Gaziantep FK's games and 75% of Pendikspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gaziantep FK vs Pendikspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Gaziantep FK's matches and 75% of Pendikspor's.
Do Gaziantep FK and Pendikspor tend to score early?
Gaziantep FK have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Pendikspor in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gaziantep FK and Pendikspor share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Kalyon Stadyumu, Regular Season - 19, as Gaziantep FK and Pendikspor drew 2-2 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.89 xG and Pendikspor 1.31 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 0.82 / defence 1.14 against Pendikspor attack 0.92 / defence 1.49, drawn from 52/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 50% | Draw 25% | Pendikspor 25%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 53%, Pendikspor 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did.
Pendikspor's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gaziantep FK 1.12 PPG, Pendikspor 0.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.