Gaziantep FK 1-0 Kayserispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gaziantep FK at 62% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kayserispor make the trip to Gaziantep Stadyumu to face Gaziantep FK in Süper Lig (matchday 28). The match kicks off on Saturday 15 March 2025 at 10:30 UK time.
Current Form
Gaziantep FK's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Gaziantep FK's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Gaziantep FK are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Kayserispor (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Kayserispor away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Gaziantep FK. A 0.50 PPG lead over Kayserispor (1.70 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Kayserispor have the stronger record — 3 wins to Gaziantep FK's 0, with 4 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Oct 2024, ended Gaziantep FK 2–2 Kayserispor — a draw.
Kayserispor have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 7 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Data
Gaziantep FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Kayserispor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 54% versus Kayserispor 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 56% | Kayserispor 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.75 xG and Kayserispor 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 0.916 / defence 0.724 | Kayserispor attack 0.830 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.658 / away 1.185. Gaziantep FK have a tight defence (rating 0.724), which is pulling Kayserispor's projected output down. Data: built from Gaziantep FK's last 63 games and Kayserispor's last 63.
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 62% | Draw 24% | Kayserispor 14%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 1.62 | Draw 4.21 | Kayserispor 6.92. The model has a clear lean to Gaziantep FK (62%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gaziantep FK are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Gaziantep FK 40% (last 10 home games) | Kayserispor 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 28 | Venue: Gaziantep Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 15 March 2025 at 10:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 62% | Draw 24% | Kayserispor 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Gaziantep FK 1.75 / Kayserispor 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 0.916 / def 0.724 | Kayserispor attack 0.830 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.658 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Gaziantep FK (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Kayserispor xG
42%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor FAQs
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor kicked off at 10:30 UK time on Saturday 15 March 2025 at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor?
Gaziantep FK 1 - 0 Kayserispor.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor being played?
The match is being played at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 28) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 62% chance of winning, Kayserispor a 14% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Gaziantep FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Kayserispor will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Gaziantep FK's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Kayserispor's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. Flip it around — Kayserispor's attack (0.83x) against Gaziantep FK's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
These ratings are built from Gaziantep FK's last 63 games and Kayserispor's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.0%), 1-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gaziantep FK Win
62%
1.62
24%
4.21
14%
6.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
2.46
0.71
Kayserispor xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
6.92
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.35
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
17%
5.74
Win to Nil
30%
3.30
3%
39.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 10.6 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 9.3 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Kayserispor expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 0.71 for Kayserispor, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gaziantep FK's recent record stands at 22W 13D 28L from 63 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Kayserispor, meanwhile, have gone 17W 21D 25L across 63 games — 1.14 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Gaziantep FK against 1.14 for Kayserispor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Gaziantep FK have managed 14W 9D 8L from their last 31 home games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kayserispor's away record stands at 7W 9D 15L across their last 31 away games, a 0.97 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gaziantep FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gaziantep FK are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Kayserispor are on 1.13 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Blended
Kayserispor
Blended
Gaziantep FK (Home) vs Kayserispor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gaziantep FK
Blended
Kayserispor
Blended
❓ Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor Form FAQs
What form are Gaziantep FK and Kayserispor in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 22W 13D 28L in their last 63 games (1.25 PPG), while Kayserispor have gone 17W 21D 25L in their last 63 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gaziantep FK at home or Kayserispor away?
Gaziantep FK's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gaziantep FK at home: 1.65 PPG; Kayserispor away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 20 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Gaziantep FK have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kayserispor won Kayserispor 3-0 Gaziantep FK on 30 Apr 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gaziantep FK have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Kayserispor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Gaziantep FK
4
Draws
3
Kayserispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Kayserispor?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Gaziantep FK have won 3, Kayserispor have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Kayserispor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 April 2026: Gaziantep FK 3-0 Kayserispor.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gaziantep FK 42%, Kayserispor 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Gaziantep FK) and 52% (Kayserispor).
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Gaziantep FK have failed to score in 29% of games; Kayserispor in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Kayserispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gaziantep FK and Kayserispor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Gaziantep FK's recent matches and 55% of Kayserispor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Gaziantep FK and Kayserispor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Gaziantep FK's recent games and 52% of Kayserispor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gaziantep FK and Kayserispor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Gaziantep FK's recent matches and 61% of Kayserispor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gaziantep FK edge out Kayserispor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gaziantep FK beat Kayserispor 1-0 at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Regular Season - 28, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.75 xG and Kayserispor 0.71 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 0.92 / defence 0.72 against Kayserispor attack 0.83 / defence 1.15, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 62% | Draw 24% | Kayserispor 14%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 56%, Kayserispor 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Kayserispor's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gaziantep FK 1.25 PPG, Kayserispor 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gaziantep FK win broke the near-deadlock. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Kayserispor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.