Gaziantep FK 3-2 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gaziantep FK at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gaziantep Stadyumu plays host to Gaziantep FK versus Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Monday 13 December 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Gaziantep FK (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Gaziantep FK have gone 5W 2D 0L this season (7 games, 2.43 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 7 home games (57%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gaziantep Stadyumu. Their home PPG of 2.43 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Gaziantep FK are significantly better at Gaziantep Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Fenerbahçe's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L D W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fenerbahçe's away record: 4W 1D 3L from 8 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.62 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Gaziantep FK against 1.70 for Fenerbahçe. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Gaziantep FK half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Fenerbahçe half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 47% versus Fenerbahçe 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 47% | Fenerbahçe 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.73 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 1.220 / defence 0.964 | Fenerbahçe attack 0.940 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 1.200 / away 1.146. Data: 15 Gaziantep FK games / 15 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 53% | Draw 25% | Fenerbahçe 22%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Fenerbahçe 4.55. Gaziantep FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gaziantep FK at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gaziantep FK if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Gaziantep FK 43% | Fenerbahçe 62%.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Gaziantep Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 13 Dec 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 53% | Draw 25% | Fenerbahçe 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Gaziantep FK 1.73 / Fenerbahçe 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 1.220 / def 0.964 | Fenerbahçe attack 0.940 / def 1.182 | league avg home 1.200 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Gaziantep FK (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Fenerbahçe xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 13 December 2021 at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe?
Gaziantep FK 3 - 2 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 53% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Gaziantep FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Fenerbahçe?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gaziantep FK and Fenerbahçe in?
Gaziantep FK (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Gaziantep FK's attack rating (1.22) and Fenerbahçe's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fenerbahçe's attack (0.94x) against Gaziantep FK's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gaziantep FK Win
53%
1.89
25%
4.02
22%
4.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
2.77
1.04
Fenerbahçe xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
4.52
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
18%
5.64
Win to Nil
19%
5.33
4%
25.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.3 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 1.04 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Gaziantep FK come into this having played 15 games, going 5W 3D 7L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fenerbahçe sit at 1.80 PPG from 15 outings (8W 3D 4L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fenerbahçe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Gaziantep FK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Gaziantep FK's home form reads 5W 2D 0L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.43 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Gaziantep FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Fenerbahçe have taken 1.43 points per game from 7 outings (3W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gaziantep FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Gaziantep FK are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 1.60 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fenerbahçe in 67%.
Last 15 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gaziantep FK and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 5W 3D 7L in their last 15 games (1.20 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 8W 3D 4L in their last 15 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gaziantep FK at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Gaziantep FK's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gaziantep FK at home: 2.43 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Fenerbahçe go into this on the back of 9 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fenerbahçe won 0-4 on 27 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gaziantep FK have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fenerbahçe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Gaziantep FK
0
Draws
9
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Fenerbahçe?
From 10 meetings on record, Gaziantep FK have won 1, Fenerbahçe have won 9, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when Fenerbahçe 4-1 Gaziantep FK.
Who has won more matches between Gaziantep FK and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gaziantep FK see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gaziantep FK 43%, Fenerbahçe 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Gaziantep FK) and 57% (Fenerbahçe).
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gaziantep FK play Fenerbahçe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Gaziantep FK's games and 71% of Fenerbahçe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Gaziantep FK's recent games and 57% of Fenerbahçe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gaziantep FK and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Gaziantep FK have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gaziantep FK edge out Fenerbahçe 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gaziantep FK beat Fenerbahçe 3-2 at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Regular Season - 16, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.73 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.04 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Gaziantep FK beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fenerbahçe outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 1.22 / defence 0.96 against Fenerbahçe attack 0.94 / defence 1.18, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 53% | Draw 25% | Fenerbahçe 22%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 47%, Fenerbahçe 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with Gaziantep FK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.