Gaziantep FK vs Eyüpspor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gaziantep FK at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gaziantep FK vs Eyüpspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 19 as Gaziantep FK welcome Eyüpspor to Gaziantep Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 31 January 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Gaziantep FK have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Gaziantep FK have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Eyüpspor — All Games: 1W 0D 9L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eyüpspor's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game.
Gaziantep FK are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 0.50 PPG ahead (0.80 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Gaziantep FK, 3 for Eyüpspor and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2026, ended 1–0 with Gaziantep FK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Gaziantep FK trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Eyüpspor trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 59% versus Eyüpspor 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 64% | Eyüpspor 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.75 xG and Eyüpspor 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 0.686 / defence 1.267 | Eyüpspor attack 0.663 / defence 1.612. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.253. Gaziantep FK's attack strength of 0.686 is below the league average — the 1.75 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Eyüpspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.612 — this is suppressing Gaziantep FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Gaziantep FK games / 44 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 54% | Draw 24% | Eyüpspor 23%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | Eyüpspor 4.35. Gaziantep FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gaziantep FK as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gaziantep FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Gaziantep FK 60% | Eyüpspor 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Gaziantep Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Jan 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 54% | Draw 24% | Eyüpspor 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Gaziantep FK 1.75 / Eyüpspor 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 0.686 / def 1.267 | Eyüpspor attack 0.663 / def 1.612 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Gaziantep FK (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Eyüpspor xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Eyüpspor is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 31 January 2027 at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Eyüpspor being played?
The match is being played at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Eyüpspor part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Eyüpspor is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 54% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Gaziantep FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Eyüpspor will score (BTTS).
Will Gaziantep FK vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Eyüpspor?
Record (5 meetings): Gaziantep FK 2W | Draws 0 | Eyüpspor 3W.
What form are Gaziantep FK and Eyüpspor in?
Gaziantep FK (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Eyüpspor (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Gaziantep FK's attack rating (0.69) and Eyüpspor's defence rating (1.61), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Eyüpspor's attack versus Gaziantep FK's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gaziantep FK Win
54%
1.86
24%
4.25
23%
4.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
2.81
1.05
Eyüpspor xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
4.41
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
17%
5.78
Win to Nil
19%
5.33
4%
25.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.2 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 1.05 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Eyüpspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gaziantep FK come into this having played 44 games, going 11W 12D 21L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Eyüpspor sit at 0.82 PPG from 44 outings (9W 9D 26L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Eyüpspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gaziantep FK on 1.02 PPG, Eyüpspor on 0.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Gaziantep FK's home form reads 5W 7D 10L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Eyüpspor have taken 0.64 points per game from 22 outings (3W 5D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
Gaziantep FK are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 0.82 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Blended
Eyüpspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gaziantep FK and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 11W 12D 21L in their last 44 games (1.02 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 9W 9D 26L in their last 44 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gaziantep FK at home or Eyüpspor away?
Gaziantep FK's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gaziantep FK at home: 1.00 PPG; Eyüpspor away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2026, when Eyüpspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gaziantep FK's record when hosting Eyüpspor specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Gaziantep FK
0
Draws
3
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Eyüpspor?
From 5 meetings on record, Gaziantep FK have won 2, Eyüpspor have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Eyüpspor last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Eyüpspor 0-1 Gaziantep FK.
Who has won more matches between Gaziantep FK and Eyüpspor?
Eyüpspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gaziantep FK 64%, Eyüpspor 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Gaziantep FK) and 50% (Eyüpspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK have failed to score in 27% of games; Eyüpspor in 59%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gaziantep FK play Eyüpspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Gaziantep FK's recent matches and 41% of Eyüpspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gaziantep FK vs Eyüpspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Gaziantep FK's matches and 50% of Eyüpspor's.
Do Gaziantep FK and Eyüpspor tend to score early?
Gaziantep FK have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Eyüpspor in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.