Gaziantep FK 1-0 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gaziantep FK at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Başakşehir travel to Gaziantep Stadyumu to take on Gaziantep FK. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 22 September 2021, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Gaziantep FK have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Gaziantep FK have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Başakşehir — All Games: 1W 0D 4L from 5 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Başakşehir have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Gaziantep FK 1.00 PPG, Başakşehir 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Gaziantep FK trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Başakşehir trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 40% versus Başakşehir 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gaziantep FK 20% | Başakşehir 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.33 xG and Başakşehir 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 0.928 / defence 0.907 | Başakşehir attack 0.838 / defence 1.318. League average goals — home 1.089 / away 1.110. Başakşehir bring a strong defensive rating of 1.318 — this is suppressing Gaziantep FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Gaziantep FK games / 5 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 48% | Draw 28% | Başakşehir 24%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Başakşehir 4.17. Gaziantep FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gaziantep FK are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gaziantep FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Gaziantep FK 40% | Başakşehir 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Gaziantep Stadyumu • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 48% | Draw 28% | Başakşehir 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG Gaziantep FK 1.33 / Başakşehir 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 0.928 / def 0.907 | Başakşehir attack 0.838 / def 1.318 | league avg home 1.089 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Gaziantep FK (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Başakşehir xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir kicked off at 15:00 on Wednesday 22 September 2021 at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir?
Gaziantep FK 1 - 0 Başakşehir.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 48% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Gaziantep FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir in?
Gaziantep FK (all comps): 1W-2D-2L in 5 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Başakşehir (all comps): 1W-0D-4L in 5 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Gaziantep FK's attack rating (0.93) and Başakşehir's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Gaziantep FK's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.5%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gaziantep FK Win
48%
2.08
28%
3.55
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
2.18
0.84
Başakşehir xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
21%
4.82
6%
16.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 12.8 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.5 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 0.84 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 5 outings, Gaziantep FK have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 1W 2D 2L record — L-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Başakşehir's form line: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games, 0.60 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Başakşehir, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Gaziantep FK are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Başakşehir.
Goals in Recent Form
Gaziantep FK are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 0.80 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Gaziantep FK have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Early Season
Başakşehir
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 games (1.00 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 1W 0D 4L in their last 5 (0.60 PPG).
Have Gaziantep FK or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gaziantep FK have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Başakşehir have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Dec 2025, when Başakşehir won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gaziantep FK's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Gaziantep FK
1
Draws
7
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir?
From 10 meetings on record, Gaziantep FK have won 2, Başakşehir have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Gaziantep FK 1-2 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gaziantep FK 40%, Başakşehir 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Gaziantep FK and 40% for Başakşehir.
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Gaziantep FK have failed to score in 40% of games; Başakşehir in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gaziantep FK play Başakşehir?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Gaziantep FK's recent matches and 40% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Gaziantep FK's recent games and 40% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Gaziantep FK have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gaziantep FK edge out Başakşehir 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gaziantep FK beat Başakşehir 1-0 at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Regular Season - 6, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.33 xG and Başakşehir 0.84 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Başakşehir landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 0.93 / defence 0.91 against Başakşehir attack 0.84 / defence 1.32, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 48% | Draw 28% | Başakşehir 24%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 20%, Başakşehir 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Başakşehir's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Gaziantep FK arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.60. That form edge translated into the three points. Gaziantep FK conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Başakşehir managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.