Galatasaray 6-1 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Galatasaray at 64% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Galatasaray vs Sivasspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Galatasaray welcome Sivasspor to RAMS Park in Süper Lig (matchday 35). Kick-off is Sunday 5 May 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Galatasaray have gone 10W 0D 0L — a 3.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters, Galatasaray have posted 10W 0D 0L from their last 10 home games — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sivasspor stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Sivasspor away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On current form, Galatasaray have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (3.00 vs 1.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Galatasaray, 2 for Sivasspor and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 Jan 2024, ended Galatasaray 1–1 Sivasspor — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Galatasaray trading profile (last 70 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
Sivasspor trading profile (last 70 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Galatasaray 47% versus Sivasspor 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Galatasaray 66% | Sivasspor 51%). Note also that Sivasspor surrender HT leads in 26% of cases while Galatasaray recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 75% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Galatasaray 2.08 xG and Sivasspor 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Galatasaray attack 1.405 / defence 0.829 | Sivasspor attack 0.846 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.238. Galatasaray carry an above-average attack rating of 1.405 — their 2.08 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Galatasaray's last 70 games and Sivasspor's last 70.
Result probabilities: Galatasaray 64% | Draw 22% | Sivasspor 13%. Fair-value odds: Galatasaray 1.56 | Draw 4.47 | Sivasspor 7.46. The model has a clear lean to Galatasaray (64%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Galatasaray at 64% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Galatasaray's last 10 home games and Sivasspor's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Galatasaray 60% (last 10 home games) | Sivasspor 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Galatasaray vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 35 | Venue: RAMS Park • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Galatasaray 64% | Draw 22% | Sivasspor 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Galatasaray 2.08 / Sivasspor 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Galatasaray attack 1.405 / def 0.829 | Sivasspor attack 0.846 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.542 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Galatasaray (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Galatasaray xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Sivasspor xG
52%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Galatasaray vs Sivasspor FAQs
What time does Galatasaray vs Sivasspor kick off?
Galatasaray vs Sivasspor kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 5 May 2024 at RAMS Park.
What was the final score in Galatasaray vs Sivasspor?
Galatasaray 6 - 1 Sivasspor.
Where is Galatasaray vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at RAMS Park.
What competition is Galatasaray vs Sivasspor part of?
Galatasaray vs Sivasspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 35) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Galatasaray vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Galatasaray a 64% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 13% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Galatasaray the favourite.
Will both teams score in Galatasaray vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Galatasaray and Sivasspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Galatasaray vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Galatasaray's attack rating (1.41) and Sivasspor's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 2.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sivasspor's attack versus Galatasaray's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Galatasaray's last 70 games and Sivasspor's last 70 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.7%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Galatasaray Win
64%
1.56
22%
4.47
13%
7.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Galatasaray xG
Total xG
2.95
0.87
Sivasspor xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
7.46
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
12%
8.03
Win to Nil
27%
3.71
2%
59.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Galatasaray vs Sivasspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Galatasaray vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Galatasaray and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Galatasaray and 0.87 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Galatasaray vs Sivasspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 70 outings, Galatasaray have picked up 2.59 PPG on a 58W 7D 5L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Sivasspor's form line: 23W 20D 27L from 70 games, 1.27 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Galatasaray are the form team by 1.32 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sivasspor.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Galatasaray have posted 2.80 PPG from their last 35 home games (32W 2D 1L).
On the road, Sivasspor have gone 12W 5D 18L from their last 35 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Galatasaray come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Galatasaray are averaging 2.33 goals scored and 0.69 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.24 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: Galatasaray have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Galatasaray
Current Season
Sivasspor
Current Season
Galatasaray (Home) vs Sivasspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Galatasaray
Current Season
Sivasspor
Current Season
❓ Galatasaray vs Sivasspor Form FAQs
What form are Galatasaray and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Galatasaray have gone 58W 7D 5L in their last 70 games (2.59 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 23W 20D 27L in their last 70 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Galatasaray at home or Sivasspor away?
Galatasaray's home record (2.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Galatasaray at home: 2.80 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Galatasaray or Sivasspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Galatasaray have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their recent games, Sivasspor in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 3 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Galatasaray have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 May 2024, when Galatasaray won Galatasaray 6-1 Sivasspor.
Galatasaray's record when hosting Sivasspor specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Galatasaray
1
Draws
2
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Galatasaray vs Sivasspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Galatasaray and Sivasspor?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Galatasaray have won 5, Sivasspor have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Galatasaray and Sivasspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 May 2025: Galatasaray 4-1 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Galatasaray and Sivasspor?
Galatasaray have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Galatasaray are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Galatasaray 60%, Sivasspor 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Galatasaray and 63% for Sivasspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Galatasaray keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Sivasspor in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Galatasaray home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Galatasaray vs Sivasspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Galatasaray and Sivasspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Galatasaray's games and 54% of Sivasspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Galatasaray and Sivasspor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Galatasaray's matches and 63% of Sivasspor's.
Do Galatasaray and Sivasspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Galatasaray's recent matches and 85% of Sivasspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Galatasaray run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Sivasspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Galatasaray beat Sivasspor 6-1 at RAMS Park, Regular Season - 35, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Galatasaray 2.08 xG and Sivasspor 0.87 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Galatasaray beat their projection by 3.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Galatasaray attack 1.41 / defence 0.83 against Sivasspor attack 0.85 / defence 0.96, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Galatasaray 64% | Draw 22% | Sivasspor 13%, with Galatasaray to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Galatasaray 66%, Sivasspor 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Galatasaray's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.
Sivasspor's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Galatasaray arrived the stronger side — 2.59 PPG against 1.27. That form edge translated into the three points. Galatasaray (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.46 average — above their attacking norm. Sivasspor (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.