Galatasaray 4-1 Pendikspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Galatasaray at 78% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Galatasaray vs Pendikspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Galatasaray and Pendikspor meet at RAMS Park in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 April 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Galatasaray have collected 3.00 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 10W 0D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Galatasaray's home record at RAMS Park: 10W 0D 0L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Pendikspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Pendikspor's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 2.20 in Galatasaray's favour (3.00 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Galatasaray have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Pendikspor in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Galatasaray 1W, Pendikspor 0W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2023, ended 2–0 with Galatasaray winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Galatasaray half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
Pendikspor half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Galatasaray 47% versus Pendikspor 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Galatasaray 59% | Pendikspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Galatasaray 2.80 xG and Pendikspor 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Galatasaray attack 1.427 / defence 0.808 | Pendikspor attack 0.772 / defence 1.362. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 1.233. Galatasaray carry an above-average attack strength of 1.427 — their λ of 2.80 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Pendikspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.362 — this is suppressing Galatasaray's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 68 Galatasaray games / 32 Pendikspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Galatasaray 78% | Draw 15% | Pendikspor 6%. Fair-value odds: Galatasaray 1.28 | Draw 6.67 | Pendikspor 16.67. The model has a clear lean to Galatasaray (78%) — a 72pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Galatasaray as the most likely outcome at 78% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.56 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Galatasaray 60% | Pendikspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Galatasaray vs Pendikspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: RAMS Park • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Apr 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Galatasaray 78% | Draw 15% | Pendikspor 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 52% | xG Galatasaray 2.80 / Pendikspor 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Galatasaray attack 1.427 / def 0.808 | Pendikspor attack 0.772 / def 1.362 | league avg home 1.438 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Galatasaray (78%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.80
Galatasaray xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Pendikspor xG
52%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Galatasaray vs Pendikspor kick off?
Galatasaray vs Pendikspor kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 21 April 2024 at RAMS Park.
What was the final score in Galatasaray vs Pendikspor?
Galatasaray 4 - 1 Pendikspor.
Where is Galatasaray vs Pendikspor being played?
The match is being played at RAMS Park.
What competition is Galatasaray vs Pendikspor part of?
Galatasaray vs Pendikspor is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Galatasaray vs Pendikspor?
Our statistical model gives Galatasaray a 78% chance of winning, Pendikspor a 6% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Galatasaray the favourite.
Will both teams score in Galatasaray vs Pendikspor?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Galatasaray and Pendikspor will score (BTTS).
Will Galatasaray vs Pendikspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Galatasaray and Pendikspor?
Record (1 meetings): Galatasaray 1W | Draws 0 | Pendikspor 0W.
What form are Galatasaray and Pendikspor in?
Galatasaray (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Pendikspor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Galatasaray's attack rating (1.43) and Pendikspor's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 2.80 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pendikspor's attack (0.77x) against Galatasaray's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 68/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Galatasaray Win
78%
1.28
15%
6.52
6%
15.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.80
Galatasaray xG
Total xG
3.56
0.77
Pendikspor xG
1.28
78%
Home win
6.52
15%
Draw
15.50
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
6%
16.38
Win to Nil
36%
2.76
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 8.5 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 10.3 | 7.9 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 7.2 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Galatasaray vs Pendikspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Galatasaray and Pendikspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.80 expected goals for Galatasaray and 0.77 for Pendikspor, a combined total of 3.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Galatasaray vs Pendikspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 78%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 32 outings, Galatasaray have picked up 2.72 PPG on a 28W 3D 1L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Pendikspor's form line: 7W 9D 16L from 32 games, 0.94 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-L.
Put side by side, Galatasaray are the form team by 1.78 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pendikspor.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Galatasaray have posted 3.00 PPG from 16 outings (16W 0D 0L).
On the road, Pendikspor have gone 2W 6D 8L from 16 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Galatasaray come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Galatasaray are averaging 2.28 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game recently; Pendikspor are on 1.12 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pendikspor in 62%.
Defensively: Galatasaray have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Galatasaray
Current Season
Pendikspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Galatasaray and Pendikspor in coming into this match?
Galatasaray have gone 28W 3D 1L in their last 32 games (2.72 PPG), while Pendikspor have gone 7W 9D 16L in their last 32 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Galatasaray at home or Pendikspor away?
Galatasaray's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Galatasaray at home: 3.00 PPG; Pendikspor away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Galatasaray or Pendikspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Galatasaray have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, Pendikspor in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Galatasaray
0
Draws
0
Pendikspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Galatasaray and Pendikspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Galatasaray have won 2, Pendikspor have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Galatasaray and Pendikspor last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2024, when Galatasaray 4-1 Pendikspor.
Who has won more matches between Galatasaray and Pendikspor?
Galatasaray have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Galatasaray are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Pendikspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for Galatasaray, 75% for Pendikspor — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Galatasaray and 56% for Pendikspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Galatasaray keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Galatasaray home games / Pendikspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Galatasaray play Pendikspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Galatasaray's games and 75% of Pendikspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Galatasaray vs Pendikspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Galatasaray's matches and 56% of Pendikspor's.
Do Galatasaray and Pendikspor tend to score early?
Galatasaray have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Pendikspor in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Galatasaray run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Pendikspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Galatasaray beat Pendikspor 4-1 at RAMS Park, Regular Season - 33, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Galatasaray 2.80 xG and Pendikspor 0.77 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Galatasaray beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Galatasaray attack 1.43 / defence 0.81 against Pendikspor attack 0.77 / defence 1.36, drawn from 68/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Galatasaray 78% | Draw 15% | Pendikspor 6%, with Galatasaray to win its most likely call at 78%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Galatasaray 59%, Pendikspor 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Galatasaray's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Pendikspor's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Galatasaray arrived the stronger side — 2.72 PPG against 0.94. Form held, and they took the win. Galatasaray (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.56 average — above their attacking norm. Pendikspor (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.