Göztepe 0-1 Yeni Malatyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Yeni Malatyaspor at 39%, yet in-form Göztepe provide a compelling counter-argument — this Göztepe vs Yeni Malatyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Yeni Malatyaspor travel to Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı to take on Göztepe. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 August 2021, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Göztepe stand at 0W 1D 0L from 1 Süper Lig matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Göztepe have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Yeni Malatyaspor — All Games: 0W 0D 1L from 1 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 5.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 5.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Yeni Malatyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Göztepe are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 100% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 0.90 xG and Yeni Malatyaspor 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 0.975 / defence 1.150 | Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.806 / away 1.239. Data: 1 Göztepe games / 1 Yeni Malatyaspor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Göztepe 24% | Draw 37% | Yeni Malatyaspor 39%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 4.17 | Draw 2.70 | Yeni Malatyaspor 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.12 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Yeni Malatyaspor are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Göztepe (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Yeni Malatyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 4.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Göztepe vs Yeni Malatyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Aug 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Göztepe 24% | Draw 37% | Yeni Malatyaspor 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 46% | xG Göztepe 0.90 / Yeni Malatyaspor 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Göztepe attack 0.975 / def 1.150 | Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.806 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Yeni Malatyaspor (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Göztepe xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Göztepe vs Yeni Malatyaspor kick off?
Göztepe vs Yeni Malatyaspor kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 22 August 2021 at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı.
What was the final score in Göztepe vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Göztepe 0 - 1 Yeni Malatyaspor.
Where is Göztepe vs Yeni Malatyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı.
What competition is Göztepe vs Yeni Malatyaspor part of?
Göztepe vs Yeni Malatyaspor is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Göztepe vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Göztepe a 24% chance of winning, Yeni Malatyaspor a 39% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Yeni Malatyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Göztepe vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Göztepe and Yeni Malatyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Göztepe vs Yeni Malatyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Yeni Malatyaspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Göztepe and Yeni Malatyaspor in?
Göztepe (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D. Yeni Malatyaspor (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 5.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Göztepe's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Yeni Malatyaspor's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. The same calculation in reverse, Yeni Malatyaspor's attack versus Göztepe's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Yeni Malatyaspor Win
24%
4.25
37%
2.68
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Göztepe xG
Total xG
2.12
1.21
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
4.25
24%
Home win
2.68
37%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
41%
2.47
Win to Nil
7%
14.29
16%
6.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 14.6 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Göztepe vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Göztepe and Yeni Malatyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Göztepe and 1.21 for Yeni Malatyaspor, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Göztepe vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 1 outings, Göztepe have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 0W 1D 0L record — D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Göztepe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Yeni Malatyaspor's form line: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L. It's still early in the season for Yeni Malatyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Göztepe are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Yeni Malatyaspor.
The Goals Picture
Göztepe are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Yeni Malatyaspor are on 1.00 scored and 5.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Göztepe have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Yeni Malatyaspor in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Göztepe
Early Season
Yeni Malatyaspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Göztepe and Yeni Malatyaspor in coming into this match?
Göztepe have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Yeni Malatyaspor have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Göztepe and Yeni Malatyaspor runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Göztepe
0
Draws
1
Yeni Malatyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Yeni Malatyaspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Göztepe have won 1, Yeni Malatyaspor have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Göztepe and Yeni Malatyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 14 January 2022, when Yeni Malatyaspor 1-2 Göztepe.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Göztepe home games / Yeni Malatyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Göztepe play Yeni Malatyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Göztepe's games and 100% of Yeni Malatyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Göztepe vs Yeni Malatyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Göztepe's recent games and 100% of Yeni Malatyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Göztepe and Yeni Malatyaspor tend to score early?
Göztepe have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Yeni Malatyaspor in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Yeni Malatyaspor edge out Göztepe 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Yeni Malatyaspor beat Göztepe 0-1 at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı, Regular Season - 2, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 0.90 xG and Yeni Malatyaspor 1.21 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Göztepe fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Göztepe 24% | Draw 37% | Yeni Malatyaspor 39%, with Yeni Malatyaspor to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 0%, Yeni Malatyaspor 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Göztepe arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Yeni Malatyaspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Göztepe managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Yeni Malatyaspor conceded 0 against a 5.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.