Göztepe 2-2 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Göztepe at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Göztepe vs Samsunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 26 as Göztepe welcome Samsunspor to Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Monday 3 March 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Göztepe have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Göztepe's form when playing at home: 9W 0D 1L across 10 games at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu this term (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Göztepe are significantly better at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Samsunspor stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Samsunspor have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Göztepe 1.40 PPG, Samsunspor 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Göztepe's 30% rate and Samsunspor's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Göztepe, 1 for Samsunspor and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 7.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 3–4 with Samsunspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Göztepe in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Samsunspor in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Göztepe 52% versus Samsunspor 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 56% | Samsunspor 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.48 xG and Samsunspor 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 1.095 / defence 0.817 | Samsunspor attack 0.852 / defence 0.823. League average goals — home 1.639 / away 1.182. Data: 23 Göztepe games / 62 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Göztepe 52% | Draw 28% | Samsunspor 20%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Samsunspor 5.00. Göztepe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Göztepe are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Göztepe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Göztepe 30% | Samsunspor 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Göztepe vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 3 Mar 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Göztepe 52% | Draw 28% | Samsunspor 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG Göztepe 1.48 / Samsunspor 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Göztepe attack 1.095 / def 0.817 | Samsunspor attack 0.852 / def 0.823 | league avg home 1.639 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Göztepe (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Göztepe xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Samsunspor xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Göztepe vs Samsunspor kick off?
Göztepe vs Samsunspor kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 3 March 2025 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Göztepe vs Samsunspor?
Göztepe 2 - 2 Samsunspor.
Where is Göztepe vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
What competition is Göztepe vs Samsunspor part of?
Göztepe vs Samsunspor is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Göztepe vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Göztepe a 52% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Göztepe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Göztepe vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Göztepe and Samsunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Göztepe vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Samsunspor?
Record (1 meetings): Göztepe 0W | Draws 0 | Samsunspor 1W.
What form are Göztepe and Samsunspor in?
Göztepe (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Samsunspor (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Göztepe's attack at 1.09x the league average against Samsunspor's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Samsunspor's attack versus Göztepe's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Göztepe Win
52%
1.93
28%
3.57
20%
4.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Göztepe xG
Total xG
2.30
0.82
Samsunspor xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
4.97
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
23%
4.39
5%
21.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 12.2 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.0 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Göztepe vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Göztepe and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Göztepe and 0.82 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Göztepe vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 23 outings, Göztepe have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 10W 5D 8L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Göztepe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Samsunspor's form line: 14W 4D 5L from 23 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-L. The sample for Samsunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Samsunspor are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Göztepe.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Göztepe have posted 2.55 PPG from 11 outings (9W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.52 PPG overall — Göztepe are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Samsunspor have gone 6W 2D 3L from 11 away games — 1.82 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Göztepe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Göztepe are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.70 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Samsunspor in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Göztepe
Blended
Samsunspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Göztepe and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Göztepe have gone 10W 5D 8L in their last 23 games (1.52 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 14W 4D 5L in their last 23 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Göztepe at home or Samsunspor away?
Göztepe's home record (2.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Göztepe at home: 2.55 PPG; Samsunspor away: 1.82 PPG.
Have Göztepe or Samsunspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Samsunspor in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Göztepe and Samsunspor runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 17 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 May 2026, when Samsunspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Göztepe's record when hosting Samsunspor specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Göztepe
2
Draws
2
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Samsunspor?
From 5 meetings on record, Göztepe have won 1, Samsunspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Göztepe and Samsunspor last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2026, when Samsunspor 3-3 Göztepe.
Who has won more matches between Göztepe and Samsunspor?
Samsunspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Göztepe 36% BTTS, Samsunspor 27%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Göztepe) and 54% (Samsunspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Göztepe keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Samsunspor in 54%; Samsunspor in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Göztepe home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Göztepe play Samsunspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Göztepe's recent matches and 27% of Samsunspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Göztepe vs Samsunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Göztepe's matches and 54% of Samsunspor's.
Do Göztepe and Samsunspor tend to score early?
Göztepe have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Samsunspor in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Göztepe and Samsunspor share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Göztepe and Samsunspor finished level at 2-2 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.48 xG and Samsunspor 0.82 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Samsunspor outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 1.09 / defence 0.82 against Samsunspor attack 0.85 / defence 0.82, drawn from 23/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Göztepe 52% | Draw 28% | Samsunspor 20%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 56%, Samsunspor 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Göztepe's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Samsunspor's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Samsunspor arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.52. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Göztepe (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Samsunspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.