Göztepe 1-7 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Göztepe at 41%, yet in-form Rizespor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Göztepe vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 35 as Göztepe welcome Rizespor to Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 May 2022 at 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Göztepe have gone 0W 1D 9L from 10 outings — a 0.10 PPG return. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Göztepe at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.10 — Göztepe are significantly better at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rizespor stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Rizespor's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Rizespor — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (0.80 vs 0.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Göztepe have won 0, Rizespor 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2021, ended 1–3 with Rizespor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Göztepe in-play tendencies (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Rizespor in-play tendencies (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Göztepe 68% and Rizespor 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 59% | Rizespor 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.36 xG and Rizespor 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 0.803 / defence 1.368 | Rizespor attack 0.629 / defence 1.389. League average goals — home 1.217 / away 1.281. Rizespor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.389 — this is suppressing Göztepe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Göztepe games / 34 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Göztepe 41% | Draw 30% | Rizespor 29%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Rizespor 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Göztepe as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rizespor (0.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Göztepe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Göztepe 60% | Rizespor 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Göztepe vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı • Kick-off: Sunday 1 May 2022, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Göztepe 41% | Draw 30% | Rizespor 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Göztepe 1.36 / Rizespor 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Göztepe attack 0.803 / def 1.368 | Rizespor attack 0.629 / def 1.389 | league avg home 1.217 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Göztepe (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Göztepe xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Rizespor xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Göztepe vs Rizespor kick off?
Göztepe vs Rizespor kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 1 May 2022 at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı.
What was the final score in Göztepe vs Rizespor?
Göztepe 1 - 7 Rizespor.
Where is Göztepe vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı.
What competition is Göztepe vs Rizespor part of?
Göztepe vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Göztepe vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Göztepe a 41% chance of winning, Rizespor a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Göztepe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Göztepe vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Göztepe and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Göztepe vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Rizespor?
Record (1 meetings): Göztepe 0W | Draws 0 | Rizespor 1W.
What form are Göztepe and Rizespor in?
Göztepe (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Rizespor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Göztepe's attack rating (0.80) and Rizespor's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rizespor's attack versus Göztepe's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Göztepe Win
41%
2.42
30%
3.37
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Göztepe xG
Total xG
2.46
1.10
Rizespor xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
14%
7.29
7%
13.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.8 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Göztepe vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Göztepe and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Göztepe and 1.10 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Göztepe vs Rizespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Göztepe come into this having played 34 games, going 7W 7D 20L for 0.82 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D.
On the other side, Rizespor sit at 0.88 PPG from 34 outings (8W 6D 20L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Göztepe on 0.82 PPG, Rizespor on 0.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Göztepe's home form reads 4W 2D 10L across 16 games on their own ground, a 0.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Rizespor have taken 0.25 points per game from 16 outings (0W 4D 12L). That's a step down from their 0.88 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rizespor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Göztepe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Göztepe are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 0.97 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Göztepe have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 34 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Göztepe
Current Season
Rizespor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Göztepe and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Göztepe have gone 7W 7D 20L in their last 34 games (0.82 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 8W 6D 20L in their last 34 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Göztepe at home or Rizespor away?
Göztepe's home record (0.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Göztepe at home: 0.88 PPG; Rizespor away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Göztepe and Rizespor runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Göztepe have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 May 2022, when Rizespor won 1-7 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Göztepe's record when hosting Rizespor specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Göztepe
0
Draws
3
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Rizespor?
From 6 meetings on record, Göztepe have won 3, Rizespor have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Göztepe and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2026, when Göztepe 3-1 Rizespor.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Göztepe 50%, Rizespor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Göztepe) and 62% (Rizespor).
On the defensive side: Göztepe have failed to score in 44% of games; Rizespor in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Göztepe home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Göztepe play Rizespor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Göztepe's recent matches and 50% of Rizespor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Göztepe vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Göztepe's recent games and 62% of Rizespor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Göztepe and Rizespor tend to score early?
Göztepe have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rizespor run riot with a 1-7 hammering of Göztepe.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat Göztepe 1-7 at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı, Regular Season - 35, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.36 xG and Rizespor 1.10 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-7 for 8 actual goals. Rizespor outscored their 1.10 projection by 5.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 0.80 / defence 1.37 against Rizespor attack 0.63 / defence 1.39, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Göztepe 41% | Draw 30% | Rizespor 29%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Rizespor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 59%, Rizespor 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Göztepe's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Rizespor's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Göztepe 0.82 PPG, Rizespor 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rizespor win broke the near-deadlock. Göztepe (home/away splits) shipped 7 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rizespor (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 0.62 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.