Göztepe 2-0 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Göztepe at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Göztepe vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 12 as Göztepe welcome Konyaspor to Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 10 November 2024 at 10:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Göztepe stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Göztepe at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu this season: 4W 1D 0L from 5 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Göztepe are significantly better at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Konyaspor — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Göztepe) versus 1.10 (Konyaspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Göztepe register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Konyaspor in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Göztepe have won 0, Konyaspor 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2022, ended 0–3 with Konyaspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Göztepe trading profile (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games).
Konyaspor trading profile (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Göztepe 60% and Konyaspor 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 60% | Konyaspor 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 2.29 xG and Konyaspor 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 1.242 / defence 1.002 | Konyaspor attack 0.938 / defence 1.237. League average goals — home 1.489 / away 1.317. Konyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.237 — this is suppressing Göztepe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Göztepe games / 49 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Göztepe 60% | Draw 21% | Konyaspor 19%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | Konyaspor 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Göztepe (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.29 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Göztepe as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.52 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Göztepe 60% | Konyaspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Göztepe vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Nov 2024, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Göztepe 60% | Draw 21% | Konyaspor 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 65% | xG Göztepe 2.29 / Konyaspor 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Göztepe attack 1.242 / def 1.002 | Konyaspor attack 0.938 / def 1.237 | league avg home 1.489 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Göztepe (60%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.29
Göztepe xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Konyaspor xG
65%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Göztepe vs Konyaspor kick off?
Göztepe vs Konyaspor kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Göztepe vs Konyaspor?
Göztepe 2 - 0 Konyaspor.
Where is Göztepe vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
What competition is Göztepe vs Konyaspor part of?
Göztepe vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Göztepe vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Göztepe a 60% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Göztepe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Göztepe vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Göztepe and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Göztepe vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Konyaspor?
Record (2 meetings): Göztepe 0W | Draws 0 | Konyaspor 2W.
What form are Göztepe and Konyaspor in?
Göztepe (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Konyaspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Göztepe vs Konyaspor?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Göztepe's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Konyaspor's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.29. The same calculation in reverse, Konyaspor's attack versus Göztepe's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Göztepe Win
60%
1.66
21%
4.80
19%
5.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
2 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.29
Göztepe xG
Total xG
3.52
1.24
Konyaspor xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
5.27
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
10%
9.85
Win to Nil
17%
5.73
2%
51.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Göztepe vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Göztepe and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.29 expected goals for Göztepe and 1.24 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 3.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Göztepe vs Konyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Göztepe come into this having played 10 games, going 4W 3D 3L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Göztepe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Konyaspor sit at 1.10 PPG from 10 outings (3W 2D 5L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Göztepe on 1.50 PPG, Konyaspor on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Göztepe's home form reads 4W 1D 0L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.60 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Göztepe are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Konyaspor have taken 0.60 points per game from 5 outings (1W 0D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Konyaspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Göztepe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Göztepe are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.10 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Göztepe have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Konyaspor in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Göztepe
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Göztepe and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Göztepe have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 games (1.50 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Göztepe at home or Konyaspor away?
Göztepe's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Göztepe at home: 2.60 PPG; Konyaspor away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Göztepe or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Göztepe and Konyaspor runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Apr 2022, when Konyaspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Göztepe's record when hosting Konyaspor specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Göztepe
2
Draws
3
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Konyaspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Göztepe have won 1, Konyaspor have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Göztepe and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Konyaspor 0-0 Göztepe.
Who has won more matches between Göztepe and Konyaspor?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Göztepe 60%, Konyaspor 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Göztepe and 60% for Konyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Göztepe keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Göztepe home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Göztepe play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Göztepe's games and 60% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Göztepe vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Göztepe's matches and 60% of Konyaspor's.
Do Göztepe and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Göztepe have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Göztepe cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Konyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Göztepe beat Konyaspor 2-0 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, Regular Season - 12, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 2.29 xG and Konyaspor 1.24 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Konyaspor landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 1.24 / defence 1.00 against Konyaspor attack 0.94 / defence 1.24, drawn from 10/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Göztepe 60% | Draw 21% | Konyaspor 19%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 60%, Konyaspor 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Göztepe's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Konyaspor's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Göztepe 1.50 PPG, Konyaspor 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Göztepe win broke the near-deadlock. Göztepe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Konyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.