Göztepe 0-1 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fatih Karagümrük at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Göztepe vs Fatih Karagümrük fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Fatih Karagümrük travel to Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı to take on Göztepe. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 December 2021, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Göztepe stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Göztepe at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı this season: 2W 1D 5L from 8 home games — 0.88 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Fatih Karagümrük have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fatih Karagümrük away from home this season: 3W 1D 4L from 8 away games — 1.25 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Göztepe 0.90 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Göztepe trading profile (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 31% of cases; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Fatih Karagümrük trading profile (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Göztepe 69% and Fatih Karagümrük 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 50% | Fatih Karagümrük 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.12 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 0.684 / defence 1.175 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.918 / defence 1.363. League average goals — home 1.205 / away 1.160. Göztepe's attack strength of 0.684 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Fatih Karagümrük bring a strong defensive rating of 1.363 — this is suppressing Göztepe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Göztepe games / 16 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Göztepe 32% | Draw 29% | Fatih Karagümrük 39%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Fatih Karagümrük 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fatih Karagümrük are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fatih Karagümrük offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Göztepe 38% | Fatih Karagümrük 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Göztepe vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Dec 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Göztepe 32% | Draw 29% | Fatih Karagümrük 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Göztepe 1.12 / Fatih Karagümrük 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Göztepe attack 0.684 / def 1.175 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.918 / def 1.363 | league avg home 1.205 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Göztepe xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Fatih Karagümrük xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Göztepe vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Göztepe vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 19 December 2021 at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı.
What was the final score in Göztepe vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Göztepe 0 - 1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Göztepe vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı.
What competition is Göztepe vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Göztepe vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Göztepe vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Göztepe a 32% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Göztepe vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Göztepe and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Göztepe vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Fatih Karagümrük?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Göztepe and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Göztepe (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Göztepe's attack at 0.68x the league average against Fatih Karagümrük's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fatih Karagümrük's attack versus Göztepe's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
32%
3.09
29%
3.46
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Göztepe xG
Total xG
2.38
1.25
Fatih Karagümrük xG
3.09
32%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
9%
10.82
13%
7.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 11.7 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Göztepe vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Göztepe and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Göztepe and 1.25 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Göztepe vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Göztepe come into this having played 16 games, going 3W 5D 8L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-L. The sample for Göztepe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fatih Karagümrük sit at 1.38 PPG from 16 outings (6W 4D 6L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fatih Karagümrük carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Göztepe — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Göztepe's home form reads 2W 1D 5L across 8 games on their own ground, a 0.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Fatih Karagümrük have taken 1.25 points per game from 8 outings (3W 1D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Göztepe are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 1.44 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Göztepe have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Göztepe
Blended
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Göztepe and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Göztepe have gone 3W 5D 8L in their last 16 games (0.88 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 6W 4D 6L in their last 16 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Göztepe at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Fatih Karagümrük's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Göztepe at home: 0.88 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Göztepe have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Göztepe's record when hosting Fatih Karagümrük specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Göztepe
0
Draws
2
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 4 meetings on record, Göztepe have won 2, Fatih Karagümrük have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Göztepe and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Göztepe 2-1 Fatih Karagümrük.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Göztepe 38%, Fatih Karagümrük 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Göztepe) and 62% (Fatih Karagümrük).
On the defensive side: Göztepe have failed to score in 62% of games; Fatih Karagümrük in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Göztepe home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Göztepe play Fatih Karagümrük?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Göztepe's recent matches and 50% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Göztepe vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Göztepe's recent games and 62% of Fatih Karagümrük's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Göztepe and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Göztepe have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fatih Karagümrük edge out Göztepe 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fatih Karagümrük beat Göztepe 0-1 at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı, Regular Season - 17, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.12 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.25 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Göztepe fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 0.68 / defence 1.18 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.92 / defence 1.36, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Göztepe 32% | Draw 29% | Fatih Karagümrük 39%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 50%, Fatih Karagümrük 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Göztepe's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Fatih Karagümrük arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.88. That form edge translated into the three points. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.