Göztepe 0-0 Eyüpspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Göztepe at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Göztepe vs Eyüpspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu plays host to Göztepe versus Eyüpspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Göztepe have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Göztepe's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
Eyüpspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eyüpspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Göztepe's favour (1.80 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Göztepe lead 0W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Göztepe half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Eyüpspor half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Göztepe 52% versus Eyüpspor 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 46% | Eyüpspor 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.58 xG and Eyüpspor 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 0.951 / defence 0.702 | Eyüpspor attack 0.919 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.264. Eyüpspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.209 — this is suppressing Göztepe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Göztepe's defence rating of 0.702 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 Göztepe games / 59 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Göztepe 52% | Draw 32% | Eyüpspor 16%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 1.92 | Draw 3.12 | Eyüpspor 6.25. Göztepe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Göztepe as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Göztepe if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Göztepe 40% | Eyüpspor 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Göztepe vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Feb 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Göztepe 52% | Draw 32% | Eyüpspor 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Göztepe 1.58 / Eyüpspor 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Göztepe attack 0.951 / def 0.702 | Eyüpspor attack 0.919 / def 1.209 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Göztepe (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Göztepe xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Eyüpspor xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Göztepe vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Göztepe vs Eyüpspor kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Göztepe vs Eyüpspor?
Göztepe 0 - 0 Eyüpspor.
Where is Göztepe vs Eyüpspor being played?
The match is being played at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
What competition is Göztepe vs Eyüpspor part of?
Göztepe vs Eyüpspor is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Göztepe vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Göztepe a 52% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 16% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Göztepe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Göztepe vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Göztepe and Eyüpspor will score (BTTS).
Will Göztepe vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Eyüpspor?
Record (3 meetings): Göztepe 0W | Draws 2 | Eyüpspor 1W.
What form are Göztepe and Eyüpspor in?
Göztepe (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Eyüpspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Göztepe's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Eyüpspor's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. Flip it around — Eyüpspor's attack (0.92x) against Göztepe's defence (0.70x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 2-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Göztepe Win
52%
1.92
32%
3.11
16%
6.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Göztepe xG
Total xG
2.40
0.82
Eyüpspor xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
6.32
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
23%
4.34
3%
30.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 11.7 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Göztepe vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Göztepe and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Göztepe and 0.82 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Göztepe vs Eyüpspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Göztepe's recent record stands at 24W 19D 16L from 59 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Göztepe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eyüpspor, meanwhile, have gone 20W 14D 25L across 59 games — 1.25 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Eyüpspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Göztepe against 1.25 for Eyüpspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Göztepe have managed 16W 10D 3L from 29 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.54 PPG overall — Göztepe are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Eyüpspor's away record stands at 7W 7D 15L across 29 trips, a 0.97 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Göztepe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Göztepe are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 1.20 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Göztepe
Blended
Eyüpspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Göztepe and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Göztepe have gone 24W 19D 16L in their last 59 games (1.54 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 20W 14D 25L in their last 59 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Göztepe at home or Eyüpspor away?
Göztepe's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Göztepe at home: 2.00 PPG; Eyüpspor away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Göztepe or Eyüpspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Eyüpspor in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Göztepe have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Eyüpspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Göztepe
3
Draws
1
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Eyüpspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Göztepe have won 0, Eyüpspor have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Göztepe and Eyüpspor last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Göztepe 0-0 Eyüpspor.
Who has won more matches between Göztepe and Eyüpspor?
Eyüpspor have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Göztepe 48%, Eyüpspor 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Göztepe) and 45% (Eyüpspor).
On the defensive side: Göztepe keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Eyüpspor in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Göztepe home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Göztepe play Eyüpspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Göztepe's recent matches and 52% of Eyüpspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Göztepe vs Eyüpspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Göztepe's recent games and 45% of Eyüpspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Göztepe and Eyüpspor tend to score early?
Göztepe have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Eyüpspor in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Göztepe's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, Regular Season - 24, as Göztepe and Eyüpspor drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.58 xG and Eyüpspor 0.82 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Göztepe fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Eyüpspor landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 0.95 / defence 0.70 against Eyüpspor attack 0.92 / defence 1.21, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Göztepe 52% | Draw 32% | Eyüpspor 16%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 46%, Eyüpspor 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Göztepe's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Eyüpspor's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Göztepe 1.54 PPG, Eyüpspor 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Göztepe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.