Göztepe vs Amed – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Göztepe at 55%, yet in-form Amed provide a compelling counter-argument — this Göztepe vs Amed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 33 as Göztepe welcome Amed to . Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 May 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Göztepe have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Göztepe have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at , Göztepe have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Göztepe are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Amed stand at 2W 0D 1L from 3 Süper Lig matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 1.00. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Amed have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Amed's 2.00 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Göztepe's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Göztepe trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Amed trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Göztepe 67% versus Amed 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Göztepe 67% | Amed 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.60 xG and Amed 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 0.904 / defence 0.981 | Amed attack 0.717 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.218. Amed bring a strong defensive rating of 1.213 — this is suppressing Göztepe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Göztepe games / 3 Amed games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Göztepe 55% | Draw 25% | Amed 20%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Amed 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Göztepe (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Göztepe at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Amed (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Göztepe 60% | Amed 33%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Göztepe vs Amed | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 16 May 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Göztepe 55% | Draw 25% | Amed 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 46% | xG Göztepe 1.60 / Amed 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Göztepe attack 0.904 / def 0.981 | Amed attack 0.717 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Göztepe (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Göztepe xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Amed xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Göztepe vs Amed kick off?
Göztepe vs Amed is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 16 May 2027.
What competition is Göztepe vs Amed part of?
Göztepe vs Amed is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Göztepe vs Amed?
Our statistical model gives Göztepe a 55% chance of winning, Amed a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Göztepe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Göztepe vs Amed?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Göztepe and Amed will score (BTTS).
Will Göztepe vs Amed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Amed?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Göztepe and Amed in?
Göztepe (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Amed (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Göztepe's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Amed's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. The same calculation in reverse, Amed's attack versus Göztepe's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (37/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Göztepe Win
55%
1.82
25%
4.00
20%
4.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Göztepe xG
Total xG
2.46
0.86
Amed xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
4.99
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
42%
2.35
20%
4.97
Win to Nil
23%
4.28
4%
24.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 11.7 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Göztepe vs Amed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Göztepe and Amed expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Göztepe and 0.86 for Amed, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Göztepe vs Amed?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 3 outings, Göztepe have picked up 0.33 PPG on a 0W 1D 2L record — D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Göztepe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Amed's form line: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Amed, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Amed are the form team by 1.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Göztepe.
The Goals Picture
Göztepe are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Amed are on 1.67 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Göztepe have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 3 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Göztepe
Early Season
Amed
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Göztepe and Amed in coming into this match?
Göztepe have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while Amed have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 (2.00 PPG).
Have Göztepe or Amed been keeping clean sheets recently?
Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Amed in 33%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Amed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Göztepe 67%, Amed 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Göztepe and 67% for Amed. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Amed in 33%; Göztepe have failed to score in 33% of games; Amed in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Göztepe home games / Amed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Göztepe play Amed?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Göztepe's recent matches and 33% of Amed's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Göztepe vs Amed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Göztepe's matches and 67% of Amed's.
Do Göztepe and Amed tend to score early?
Göztepe have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Amed in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.