Göztepe 1-1 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Adana Demirspor at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Göztepe vs Adana Demirspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Göztepe host Adana Demirspor at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 December 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Göztepe stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Göztepe at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı this season: 2W 1D 6L from 9 home games — 0.78 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.56 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game.
Adana Demirspor — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Adana Demirspor away from home this season: 3W 3D 3L from 9 away games — 1.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.56 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Adana Demirspor are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Göztepe in-play and half-time data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 28% of cases; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Adana Demirspor in-play and half-time data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Göztepe 67% versus Adana Demirspor 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 50% | Adana Demirspor 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 0.93 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 0.634 / defence 1.157 | Adana Demirspor attack 1.097 / defence 1.268. League average goals — home 1.153 / away 1.139. Göztepe's attack strength of 0.634 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Adana Demirspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.268 — this is suppressing Göztepe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Göztepe games / 18 Adana Demirspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Göztepe 23% | Draw 28% | Adana Demirspor 48%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 4.35 | Draw 3.57 | Adana Demirspor 2.08. Adana Demirspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Adana Demirspor are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Adana Demirspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Göztepe 33% | Adana Demirspor 78%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Göztepe vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Dec 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Göztepe 23% | Draw 28% | Adana Demirspor 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Göztepe 0.93 / Adana Demirspor 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Göztepe attack 0.634 / def 1.157 | Adana Demirspor attack 1.097 / def 1.268 | league avg home 1.153 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Adana Demirspor (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Göztepe xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Adana Demirspor xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Göztepe vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Göztepe vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 26 December 2021 at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı.
What was the final score in Göztepe vs Adana Demirspor?
Göztepe 1 - 1 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Göztepe vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı.
What competition is Göztepe vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Göztepe vs Adana Demirspor is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Göztepe vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Göztepe a 23% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 48% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Adana Demirspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Göztepe vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Göztepe and Adana Demirspor will score (BTTS).
Will Göztepe vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Adana Demirspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Göztepe and Adana Demirspor in?
Göztepe (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Adana Demirspor (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Göztepe's attack at 0.63x the league average against Adana Demirspor's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Adana Demirspor's attack versus Göztepe's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Adana Demirspor Win
23%
4.29
28%
3.52
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Göztepe xG
Total xG
2.37
1.45
Adana Demirspor xG
4.29
23%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
40%
2.53
Win to Nil
5%
18.22
19%
5.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 13.5 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Göztepe vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Göztepe and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Göztepe and 1.45 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Göztepe vs Adana Demirspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Göztepe come into this having played 18 games, going 3W 5D 10L for 0.78 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Göztepe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Adana Demirspor sit at 1.61 PPG from 18 outings (8W 5D 5L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Adana Demirspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.83 PPG clear of Göztepe — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Göztepe's home form reads 2W 1D 6L across 9 games on their own ground, a 0.78 PPG return.
Away from home, Adana Demirspor have taken 1.33 points per game from 9 outings (3W 3D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Adana Demirspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Göztepe are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 1.44 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Göztepe have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 18 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Göztepe
Blended
Adana Demirspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Göztepe and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Göztepe have gone 3W 5D 10L in their last 18 games (0.78 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 8W 5D 5L in their last 18 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Göztepe at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Adana Demirspor's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Göztepe at home: 0.78 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Göztepe and Adana Demirspor runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Göztepe go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 May 2022, when Adana Demirspor won 7-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Göztepe's record when hosting Adana Demirspor specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Göztepe
1
Draws
1
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Adana Demirspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Göztepe have won 2, Adana Demirspor have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Göztepe and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when Adana Demirspor 1-2 Göztepe.
Who has won more matches between Göztepe and Adana Demirspor?
Göztepe have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Göztepe see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Göztepe 33%, Adana Demirspor 78% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 22% (Göztepe) and 67% (Adana Demirspor).
On the defensive side: Göztepe have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Göztepe home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Göztepe play Adana Demirspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Göztepe's games and 78% of Adana Demirspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Göztepe vs Adana Demirspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Göztepe's recent games and 67% of Adana Demirspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Göztepe and Adana Demirspor tend to score early?
Göztepe have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Adana Demirspor in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Göztepe and Adana Demirspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı, Regular Season - 19, as Göztepe and Adana Demirspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 0.93 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.45 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 0.63 / defence 1.16 against Adana Demirspor attack 1.10 / defence 1.27, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Göztepe 23% | Draw 28% | Adana Demirspor 48%, with Adana Demirspor to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 50%, Adana Demirspor 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Göztepe's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Adana Demirspor arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.78. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.