Fenerbahçe 2-3 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 62% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Trabzonspor travel to Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi to take on Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig (matchday 11). The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 November 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Fenerbahçe stand at 10W 0D 0L — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Fenerbahçe's home record over their last 10 home games: 9W 1D 0L (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Trabzonspor have recorded 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Trabzonspor's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Fenerbahçe are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.40 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 1.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Fenerbahçe's games and 70% of Trabzonspor's (from Fenerbahçe's last 10 home games and Trabzonspor's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Fenerbahçe have won 1, Trabzonspor 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 18 May 2023, ended Fenerbahçe 3–1 Trabzonspor — a Fenerbahçe win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Fenerbahçe in-play tendencies (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Trabzonspor in-play tendencies (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fenerbahçe 49% versus Trabzonspor 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Fenerbahçe 71% | Trabzonspor 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 2.41 xG and Trabzonspor 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.724 / defence 1.016 | Trabzonspor attack 1.019 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.195. Fenerbahçe carry an above-average attack rating of 1.724 — their 2.41 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Fenerbahçe's last 46 games and Trabzonspor's last 45.
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 62% | Draw 21% | Trabzonspor 17%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.62 | Draw 4.68 | Trabzonspor 5.97. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (62%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (2.41 / 1.24) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.65 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Fenerbahçe's last 10 home games and Trabzonspor's last 10 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fenerbahçe 60% (last 10 home games) | Trabzonspor 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 11 | Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 62% | Draw 21% | Trabzonspor 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% (Under 29%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG Fenerbahçe 2.41 / Trabzonspor 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.724 / def 1.016 | Trabzonspor attack 1.019 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.41
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Trabzonspor xG
66%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor FAQs
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor?
Fenerbahçe 2 - 3 Trabzonspor.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 11) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 62% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 17% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Trabzonspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fenerbahçe's attack rating (1.72) and Trabzonspor's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 2.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Fenerbahçe's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Fenerbahçe's last 46 games and Trabzonspor's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.8%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
62%
1.62
21%
4.68
17%
5.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
2 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.41
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
3.65
1.24
Trabzonspor xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
5.97
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
9%
11.16
Win to Nil
18%
5.57
2%
66.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.5 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.41 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.24 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 3.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, Fenerbahçe have picked up 2.42 PPG on a 35W 4D 6L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Trabzonspor's form line: 21W 7D 17L from 45 games, 1.56 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-D.
Put side by side, Fenerbahçe are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Trabzonspor.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fenerbahçe have posted 2.50 PPG from their last 22 home games (18W 1D 3L).
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 5W 3D 14L from their last 22 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Trabzonspor's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.51 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.71 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Trabzonspor in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
Fenerbahçe (Home) vs Trabzonspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor Form FAQs
What form are Fenerbahçe and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 35W 4D 6L in their last 45 games (2.42 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 21W 7D 17L in their last 45 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Trabzonspor away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.50 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 14 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Fenerbahçe have won each of the latest 5 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Apr 2025, when Fenerbahçe won Fenerbahçe 4-1 Trabzonspor.
Fenerbahçe's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Fenerbahçe
1
Draws
3
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Trabzonspor?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Fenerbahçe have won 6, Trabzonspor have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Trabzonspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 February 2026: Trabzonspor 2-3 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Trabzonspor?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fenerbahçe 50%, Trabzonspor 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for Fenerbahçe and 68% for Trabzonspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fenerbahçe and Trabzonspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Fenerbahçe's games and 68% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Fenerbahçe and Trabzonspor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of Fenerbahçe's matches and 68% of Trabzonspor's.
Do Fenerbahçe and Trabzonspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Fenerbahçe's recent matches and 86% of Trabzonspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Trabzonspor defy the odds to beat Fenerbahçe 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Fenerbahçe 2-3 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 11, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 2.41 xG and Trabzonspor 1.24 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Trabzonspor outscored their 1.24 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.72 / defence 1.02 against Trabzonspor attack 1.02 / defence 0.95, drawn from 46/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 62% | Draw 21% | Trabzonspor 17%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Trabzonspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 71%, Trabzonspor 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 1.56. Form was overturned, with Trabzonspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.95 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.