Fenerbahçe 4-2 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (62%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Fenerbahçe face Hatayspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hatayspor make the trip to Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi to face Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig (matchday 9). The match kicks off on Sunday 22 October 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Current Form
Fenerbahçe's record over their last 10 games: 9W 0D 1L (2.70 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home, Fenerbahçe have gone 8W 1D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hatayspor (all games): 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Hatayspor have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form favours the hosts. Fenerbahçe's 2.70 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Hatayspor's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record in our data favours Fenerbahçe, who have won 4 of the 4 H2H matches we hold against Hatayspor — Hatayspor have 0 wins, with 0 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 21 May 2023, ended Fenerbahçe 3–0 Hatayspor — a Fenerbahçe win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Fenerbahçe and goals — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Fenerbahçe — key trading statistics (last 44 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Hatayspor — key trading statistics (last 44 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 61% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fenerbahçe 50% versus Hatayspor 32%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Fenerbahçe 70% | Hatayspor 70%). Note also that Hatayspor surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while Fenerbahçe recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 67% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 1.99 xG and Hatayspor 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.624 / defence 0.883 | Hatayspor attack 0.808 / defence 0.832. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.214. Fenerbahçe carry an above-average attack rating of 1.624 — their 1.99 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Fenerbahçe's last 44 games and Hatayspor's last 44.
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 62% | Draw 24% | Hatayspor 14%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.61 | Draw 4.11 | Hatayspor 7.29. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (62%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Fenerbahçe's last 10 home games and Hatayspor's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Fenerbahçe 60% (last 10 home games) | Hatayspor 10% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 9 | Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Sunday 22 October 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 62% | Draw 24% | Hatayspor 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Fenerbahçe 1.99 / Hatayspor 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.624 / def 0.883 | Hatayspor attack 0.808 / def 0.832 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Hatayspor xG
52%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fenerbahçe vs Hatayspor FAQs
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Hatayspor kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Hatayspor kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 22 October 2023 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Hatayspor?
Fenerbahçe 4 - 2 Hatayspor.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Hatayspor part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Hatayspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 9) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 62% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 14% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Hatayspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Fenerbahçe vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Fenerbahçe's attacking strength (1.62x league average) is weighed against Hatayspor's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.99. Flip it around — Hatayspor's attack (0.81x) against Fenerbahçe's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from Fenerbahçe's last 44 games and Hatayspor's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
62%
1.61
24%
4.11
14%
7.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
2.86
0.86
Hatayspor xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
7.29
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
14%
7.34
Win to Nil
26%
3.83
2%
53.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fenerbahçe vs Hatayspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 0.86 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Hatayspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fenerbahçe come into this having played 44 games, going 33W 5D 6L for 2.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Hatayspor sit at 0.84 PPG from 44 outings (9W 10D 25L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-W across their last five.
Fenerbahçe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.52 PPG clear of Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Fenerbahçe's home form reads 17W 2D 3L across their last 22 home games, a 2.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Hatayspor have taken 0.59 points per game from their last 22 away games (3W 4D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.43 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 0.75 scored and 2.05 conceded.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Hatayspor
Blended
Fenerbahçe (Home) vs Hatayspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Hatayspor
Blended
❓ Fenerbahçe vs Hatayspor Form FAQs
What form are Fenerbahçe and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 33W 5D 6L in their last 44 games (2.36 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 9W 10D 25L in their last 44 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Hatayspor away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.41 PPG; Hatayspor away: 0.59 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or Hatayspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Hatayspor in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 26 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fenerbahçe won Fenerbahçe 4-0 Hatayspor on 27 Dec 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fenerbahçe have gone 4W 0D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Fenerbahçe
0
Draws
1
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Fenerbahçe vs Hatayspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Hatayspor?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Fenerbahçe have won 7, Hatayspor have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Hatayspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 May 2025: Hatayspor 4-2 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Hatayspor?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fenerbahçe 50%, Hatayspor 23% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for Fenerbahçe and 68% for Hatayspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Hatayspor in 73%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fenerbahçe vs Hatayspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fenerbahçe and Hatayspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Fenerbahçe's recent matches and 23% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Fenerbahçe and Hatayspor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of Fenerbahçe's matches and 68% of Hatayspor's.
Do Fenerbahçe and Hatayspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Fenerbahçe's recent matches and 67% of Hatayspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fenerbahçe cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Hatayspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Hatayspor 4-2 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 9, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 1.99 xG and Hatayspor 0.86 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Fenerbahçe beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hatayspor outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.62 / defence 0.88 against Hatayspor attack 0.81 / defence 0.83, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 62% | Draw 24% | Hatayspor 14%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 70%, Hatayspor 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Hatayspor's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.91 average — above their attacking norm. Hatayspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.55 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.