Fenerbahçe 1-0 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fenerbahçe at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 11 as Fenerbahçe welcome Başakşehir to Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fenerbahçe stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 3.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fenerbahçe have posted 8W 2D 0L at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
Başakşehir — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fenerbahçe 2.30 PPG, Başakşehir 2.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Fenerbahçe, 2 for Başakşehir and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2022, ended 0–1 with Başakşehir winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Fenerbahçe in-play and half-time data (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fenerbahçe 57% versus Başakşehir 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 57% | Başakşehir 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 1.86 xG and Başakşehir 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.745 / defence 1.116 | Başakşehir attack 1.000 / defence 0.767. League average goals — home 1.388 / away 1.291. Fenerbahçe carry an above-average attack strength of 1.745 — their λ of 1.86 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Başakşehir's defence strength of 0.767 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 47 Fenerbahçe games / 47 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 47% | Draw 23% | Başakşehir 30%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 2.13 | Draw 4.35 | Başakşehir 3.33. Fenerbahçe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.30 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fenerbahçe 50% | Başakşehir 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 47% | Draw 23% | Başakşehir 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 64% | xG Fenerbahçe 1.86 / Başakşehir 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.745 / def 1.116 | Başakşehir attack 1.000 / def 0.767 | league avg home 1.388 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Başakşehir xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir?
Fenerbahçe 1 - 0 Başakşehir.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 47% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 30% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Başakşehir?
Record (2 meetings): Fenerbahçe 0W | Draws 0 | Başakşehir 2W.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Başakşehir in?
Fenerbahçe (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 3.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Başakşehir (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Fenerbahçe's attack rating (1.75) and Başakşehir's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Fenerbahçe's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
47%
2.11
23%
4.44
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
3.30
1.44
Başakşehir xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
16%
6.40
Win to Nil
11%
8.90
5%
21.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 9.9 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.44 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fenerbahçe's recent record stands at 27W 12D 8L from 47 games, a 1.98 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Başakşehir, meanwhile, have gone 25W 10D 12L across 47 games — 1.81 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fenerbahçe on 1.98 PPG, Başakşehir on 1.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Fenerbahçe have managed 14W 5D 3L from 22 games — 2.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Başakşehir's away record stands at 9W 7D 6L across 22 trips, a 1.55 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.15 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.47 scored and 0.83 conceded. Fenerbahçe's scoring rate against Başakşehir's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Başakşehir in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fenerbahçe and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 27W 12D 8L in their last 47 games (1.98 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 25W 10D 12L in their last 47 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Başakşehir away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.14 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fenerbahçe and Başakşehir runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2023, when Fenerbahçe won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fenerbahçe's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Fenerbahçe
1
Draws
2
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Başakşehir?
From 10 meetings on record, Fenerbahçe have won 7, Başakşehir have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Fenerbahçe 3-1 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Başakşehir?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fenerbahçe 59%, Başakşehir 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Fenerbahçe) and 46% (Başakşehir).
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Başakşehir in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fenerbahçe play Başakşehir?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Fenerbahçe's games and 59% of Başakşehir's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Fenerbahçe's recent games and 46% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fenerbahçe and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Fenerbahçe have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fenerbahçe edge out Başakşehir 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Başakşehir 1-0 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 11, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 1.86 xG and Başakşehir 1.44 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fenerbahçe fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Başakşehir landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.75 / defence 1.12 against Başakşehir attack 1.00 / defence 0.77, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 47% | Draw 23% | Başakşehir 30%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 57%, Başakşehir 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Başakşehir's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fenerbahçe 1.98 PPG, Başakşehir 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fenerbahçe win broke the near-deadlock. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.