Fenerbahçe 3-1 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (64%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fenerbahçe face Başakşehir.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 16 as Fenerbahçe welcome Başakşehir to Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 December 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fenerbahçe stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fenerbahçe have posted 9W 0D 1L at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi — 2.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Fenerbahçe are significantly better at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi than their overall form suggests.
Başakşehir — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Fenerbahçe are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Fenerbahçe, 2 for Başakşehir and 0 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2024, ended 1–0 with Fenerbahçe winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Fenerbahçe in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 84% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fenerbahçe 52% versus Başakşehir 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 65% | Başakşehir 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 2.12 xG and Başakşehir 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.247 / defence 0.826 | Başakşehir attack 0.940 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.627 / away 1.177. Data: 52 Fenerbahçe games / 52 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 64% | Draw 22% | Başakşehir 14%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.56 | Draw 4.55 | Başakşehir 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (64%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Fenerbahçe 40% | Başakşehir 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Dec 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 64% | Draw 22% | Başakşehir 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 54% | xG Fenerbahçe 2.12 / Başakşehir 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.247 / def 0.826 | Başakşehir attack 0.940 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.627 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Başakşehir xG
54%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 15 December 2024 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir?
Fenerbahçe 3 - 1 Başakşehir.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 64% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 14% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Başakşehir?
Record (6 meetings): Fenerbahçe 4W | Draws 0 | Başakşehir 2W.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Başakşehir in?
Fenerbahçe (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Başakşehir (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Fenerbahçe's attack rating (1.25) and Başakşehir's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 2.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Fenerbahçe's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
64%
1.56
22%
4.54
14%
7.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
3.04
0.91
Başakşehir xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
7.17
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
12%
8.37
Win to Nil
26%
3.90
2%
60.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 9.3 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 0.91 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fenerbahçe's recent record stands at 41W 8D 3L from 52 games, a 2.52 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Başakşehir, meanwhile, have gone 24W 11D 17L across 52 games — 1.60 PPG, with L-D-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fenerbahçe by 0.92 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Başakşehir heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Fenerbahçe have managed 20W 3D 2L from 25 games — 2.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Başakşehir's away record stands at 10W 5D 10L across 25 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.60 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.56 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fenerbahçe and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 41W 8D 3L in their last 52 games (2.52 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 24W 11D 17L in their last 52 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Başakşehir away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.52 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fenerbahçe and Başakşehir runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2023, when Fenerbahçe won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fenerbahçe's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Fenerbahçe
1
Draws
2
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Başakşehir?
From 10 meetings on record, Fenerbahçe have won 7, Başakşehir have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Fenerbahçe 3-1 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Başakşehir?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fenerbahçe 64%, Başakşehir 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 84% for Fenerbahçe and 44% for Başakşehir. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Başakşehir in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fenerbahçe play Başakşehir?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Fenerbahçe's recent matches and 44% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 84% of Fenerbahçe's matches and 44% of Başakşehir's.
Do Fenerbahçe and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Fenerbahçe have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fenerbahçe cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Başakşehir.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Başakşehir 3-1 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 16, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 2.12 xG and Başakşehir 0.91 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Fenerbahçe beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.25 / defence 0.83 against Başakşehir attack 0.94 / defence 1.05, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 64% | Draw 22% | Başakşehir 14%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 65%, Başakşehir 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Başakşehir's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.52 PPG against 1.60. Form held, and they took the win. Başakşehir (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.