Fatih Karagümrük 0-0 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fatih Karagümrük at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Fatih Karagümrük face Trabzonspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Fatih Karagümrük welcome Trabzonspor to Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı in Süper Lig (matchday 10). Kick-off is Sunday 29 October 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Fatih Karagümrük — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Fatih Karagümrük at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Trabzonspor have recorded 5W 0D 5L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Trabzonspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 8L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Fatih Karagümrük) versus 1.50 (Trabzonspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Fatih Karagümrük, 2 for Trabzonspor and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 22 May 2023, ended Fatih Karagümrük 1–4 Trabzonspor — a Trabzonspor win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Fatih Karagümrük in-play and half-time data (last 44 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (last 44 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 64% versus Trabzonspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 61% | Trabzonspor 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.48 xG and Trabzonspor 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.952 / defence 0.933 | Trabzonspor attack 1.130 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.176. Data: built from Fatih Karagümrük's last 45 games and Trabzonspor's last 44.
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 41% | Draw 29% | Trabzonspor 30%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 2.45 | Draw 3.39 | Trabzonspor 3.37. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fatih Karagümrük are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fatih Karagümrük offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Fatih Karagümrük's last 10 home games and Trabzonspor's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fatih Karagümrük 40% (last 10 home games) | Trabzonspor 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 10 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Sunday 29 October 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 41% | Draw 29% | Trabzonspor 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.48 / Trabzonspor 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.952 / def 0.933 | Trabzonspor attack 1.130 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Trabzonspor xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor FAQs
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor?
Fatih Karagümrük 0 - 0 Trabzonspor.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 10) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 41% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Trabzonspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Fatih Karagümrük's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Trabzonspor's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Fatih Karagümrük's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Fatih Karagümrük's last 45 games and Trabzonspor's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
41%
2.45
29%
3.39
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
2.72
1.24
Trabzonspor xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
12%
8.45
7%
14.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.1 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.24 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fatih Karagümrük's recent record stands at 15W 15D 14L from 44 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-W in the last five.
Trabzonspor, meanwhile, have gone 21W 6D 17L across 44 games — 1.57 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fatih Karagümrük on 1.36 PPG, Trabzonspor on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Fatih Karagümrük have managed 7W 7D 7L from their last 21 home games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Trabzonspor's away record stands at 5W 2D 14L across their last 21 away games, a 0.81 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Trabzonspor's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fatih Karagümrük come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.75 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fatih Karagümrük have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Trabzonspor in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
Fatih Karagümrük (Home) vs Trabzonspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor Form FAQs
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 15W 15D 14L in their last 44 games (1.36 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 21W 6D 17L in their last 44 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Trabzonspor away?
Fatih Karagümrük's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 1.33 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Fatih Karagümrük or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fatih Karagümrük have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 27 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Trabzonspor have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Mar 2024, when Trabzonspor won Trabzonspor 5-1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Fatih Karagümrük's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Fatih Karagümrük
2
Draws
5
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Trabzonspor?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Fatih Karagümrük have won 1, Trabzonspor have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Trabzonspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 February 2026: Trabzonspor 3-1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Fatih Karagümrük at 62%, Trabzonspor at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Fatih Karagümrük and 71% for Trabzonspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fatih Karagümrük and Trabzonspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Fatih Karagümrük's games and 71% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Fatih Karagümrük and Trabzonspor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Fatih Karagümrük's matches and 71% of Trabzonspor's.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Trabzonspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent matches and 90% of Trabzonspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Fatih Karagümrük's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 10, as Fatih Karagümrük and Trabzonspor drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.48 xG and Trabzonspor 1.24 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Trabzonspor landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.95 / defence 0.93 against Trabzonspor attack 1.13 / defence 1.06, drawn from 45/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 41% | Draw 29% | Trabzonspor 30%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 61%, Trabzonspor 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fatih Karagümrük 1.36 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.