Fatih Karagümrük 4-3 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Fatih Karagümrük at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fatih Karagümrük vs Sivasspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 24 as Fatih Karagümrük welcome Sivasspor to Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 March 2023 at 10:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D D D D W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Sivasspor stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Sivasspor have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Fatih Karagümrük at 1.40 PPG versus Sivasspor's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Fatih Karagümrük register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Sivasspor in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Fatih Karagümrük have won 1, Sivasspor 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Fatih Karagümrük trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

Sivasspor trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fatih Karagümrük 58% and Sivasspor 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 58% | Sivasspor 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.75 xG and Sivasspor 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.168 / defence 1.167 | Sivasspor attack 1.143 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.604 / away 1.308. Data: 59 Fatih Karagümrük games / 60 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 39% | Draw 22% | Sivasspor 39%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 2.56 | Draw 4.55 | Sivasspor 2.56. The draw (22%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 22% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 39% and away win at 39% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 3.50 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Fatih Karagümrük 80% | Sivasspor 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 39% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights