Fatih Karagümrük 2-0 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Konyaspor at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı plays host to Fatih Karagümrük versus Konyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Sunday 9 November 2025 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fatih Karagümrük have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fatih Karagümrük's home record at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı: 0W 1D 5L from 6 Süper Lig appearances (0.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game.
Konyaspor (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Konyaspor are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Fatih Karagümrük, 1 for Konyaspor and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Fatih Karagümrük — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Konyaspor — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fatih Karagümrük 46% and Konyaspor 82% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 54% | Konyaspor 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.06 xG and Konyaspor 2.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.792 / defence 1.469 | Konyaspor attack 1.125 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.313. Fatih Karagümrük's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 11 Fatih Karagümrük games / 47 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 16% | Draw 24% | Konyaspor 61%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 6.25 | Draw 4.17 | Konyaspor 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Konyaspor (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.06 / 2.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.23 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Fatih Karagümrük 33% | Konyaspor 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Nov 2025, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 16% | Draw 24% | Konyaspor 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 60% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.06 / Konyaspor 2.17 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.792 / def 1.469 | Konyaspor attack 1.125 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.277 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
2.17
Konyaspor xG
60%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 9 November 2025 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor?
Fatih Karagümrük 2 - 0 Konyaspor.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 16% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 61% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Konyaspor?
Record (6 meetings): Fatih Karagümrük 1W | Draws 4 | Konyaspor 1W.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Konyaspor in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Konyaspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Fatih Karagümrük's attack at 0.79x the league average against Konyaspor's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (1.12x) against Fatih Karagümrük's defence (1.47x) — and the away total comes out at 2.17.
These ratings are built from 11/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
16%
6.36
24%
4.24
61%
1.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.3%
Away win
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
3.23
2.17
Konyaspor xG
6.36
16%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
1.65
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
11%
8.76
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
2%
55.68
21%
4.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 8.5 | 9.3 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 2.17 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 11 outings, Fatih Karagümrük have picked up 0.36 PPG on a 1W 1D 9L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Konyaspor's form line: 4W 2D 5L from 11 games, 1.27 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-L. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Konyaspor are the form team by 0.91 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fatih Karagümrük.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Fatih Karagümrük have posted 0.20 PPG from 5 outings (0W 1D 4L).
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 2.09 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.64 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor in 82%.
Last 11 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 1W 1D 9L in their last 11 games (0.36 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 4W 2D 5L in their last 11 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Konyaspor away?
Konyaspor's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 0.20 PPG; Konyaspor away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Konyaspor won 1-4 on 11 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Fatih Karagümrük
4
Draws
2
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Konyaspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 2, Konyaspor have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Konyaspor 3-0 Fatih Karagümrük.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 40% for Fatih Karagümrük, 100% for Konyaspor — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Fatih Karagümrük) and 60% (Konyaspor).
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Fatih Karagümrük's games and 100% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent games and 60% of Konyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fatih Karagümrük cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Konyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fatih Karagümrük beat Konyaspor 2-0 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 12, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.06 xG and Konyaspor 2.17 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Konyaspor landed 2.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.79 / defence 1.47 against Konyaspor attack 1.12 / defence 1.05, drawn from 11/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 16% | Draw 24% | Konyaspor 61%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Fatih Karagümrük win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 54%, Konyaspor 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Konyaspor's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Konyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.36. Form was overturned, with Fatih Karagümrük winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line. Konyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.