Fatih Karagümrük 1-2 Eyüpspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fatih Karagümrük at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fatih Karagümrük vs Eyüpspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 30 as Fatih Karagümrük welcome Eyüpspor to Ataturk Olimpiyat. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 April 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Fatih Karagümrük — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Ataturk Olimpiyat, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eyüpspor stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Eyüpspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Fatih Karagümrük) versus 0.70 (Eyüpspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Fatih Karagümrük, 0 for Eyüpspor and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Fatih Karagümrük in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Eyüpspor in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 48% versus Eyüpspor 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 48% | Eyüpspor 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.38 xG and Eyüpspor 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.857 / defence 0.945 | Eyüpspor attack 0.708 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.197. Data: 29 Fatih Karagümrük games / 65 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 48% | Draw 34% | Eyüpspor 19%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 2.08 | Draw 2.94 | Eyüpspor 5.26. Fatih Karagümrük hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fatih Karagümrük as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fatih Karagümrük offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Fatih Karagümrük 40% | Eyüpspor 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Ataturk Olimpiyat • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 48% | Draw 34% | Eyüpspor 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.38 / Eyüpspor 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.857 / def 0.945 | Eyüpspor attack 0.708 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Eyüpspor xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Eyüpspor kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Ataturk Olimpiyat.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Eyüpspor?
Fatih Karagümrük 1 - 2 Eyüpspor.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Eyüpspor being played?
The match is being played at Ataturk Olimpiyat.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Eyüpspor part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Eyüpspor is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 48% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 19% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Eyüpspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Eyüpspor?
Record (1 meetings): Fatih Karagümrük 0W | Draws 1 | Eyüpspor 0W.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Eyüpspor in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Eyüpspor (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fatih Karagümrük's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Eyüpspor's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Eyüpspor's attack versus Fatih Karagümrük's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.0%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
48%
2.10
34%
2.97
19%
5.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
2.18
0.80
Eyüpspor xG
2.10
48%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
5.33
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
21%
4.68
5%
21.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 9.1 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 12.5 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 0.80 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Eyüpspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fatih Karagümrük's recent record stands at 5W 5D 19L from 29 games, a 0.69 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Eyüpspor, meanwhile, have gone 5W 7D 17L across 29 games — 0.76 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fatih Karagümrük on 0.69 PPG, Eyüpspor on 0.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Fatih Karagümrük have managed 4W 3D 7L from 14 games — 1.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Eyüpspor's away record stands at 2W 3D 9L across 14 trips, a 0.64 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fatih Karagümrük come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 0.69 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Current Season
Eyüpspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 5W 5D 19L in their last 29 games (0.69 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 5W 7D 17L in their last 29 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Eyüpspor away?
Fatih Karagümrük's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 1.07 PPG; Eyüpspor away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Fatih Karagümrük
1
Draws
1
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Eyüpspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 0, Eyüpspor have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Eyüpspor last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Fatih Karagümrük 1-2 Eyüpspor.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Eyüpspor?
Eyüpspor have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Eyüpspor see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fatih Karagümrük 36%, Eyüpspor 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Fatih Karagümrük) and 43% (Eyüpspor).
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük have failed to score in 43% of games; Eyüpspor in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Eyüpspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent matches and 36% of Eyüpspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Eyüpspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent games and 43% of Eyüpspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Eyüpspor tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Eyüpspor in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Eyüpspor defy the odds to beat Fatih Karagümrük 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eyüpspor beat Fatih Karagümrük 1-2 at Ataturk Olimpiyat, Regular Season - 30, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.38 xG and Eyüpspor 0.80 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Eyüpspor outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.86 / defence 0.94 against Eyüpspor attack 0.71 / defence 1.15, drawn from 29/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 48% | Draw 34% | Eyüpspor 19%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Eyüpspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 48%, Eyüpspor 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Eyüpspor's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fatih Karagümrük 0.69 PPG, Eyüpspor 0.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eyüpspor win broke the near-deadlock. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.57 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.