Eyüpspor 2-1 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eyüpspor at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Konyaspor travel to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu to take on Eyüpspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 March 2025, 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Eyüpspor — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eyüpspor at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Eyüpspor are significantly better at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Konyaspor stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Eyüpspor 1.40 PPG, Konyaspor 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Eyüpspor, 1 for Konyaspor and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2024, ended 1–2 with Konyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Eyüpspor in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Konyaspor in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eyüpspor 56% and Konyaspor 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 48% | Konyaspor 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.53 xG and Konyaspor 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.929 / defence 0.999 | Konyaspor attack 0.888 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.646 / away 1.178. Data: 25 Eyüpspor games / 63 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 48% | Draw 26% | Konyaspor 25%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Konyaspor 4.00. Eyüpspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Eyüpspor at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eyüpspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Eyüpspor 50% | Konyaspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Mar 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 48% | Draw 26% | Konyaspor 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Eyüpspor 1.53 / Konyaspor 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 0.929 / def 0.999 | Konyaspor attack 0.888 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.646 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Eyüpspor (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Konyaspor xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 9 March 2025 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor?
Eyüpspor 2 - 1 Konyaspor.
Where is Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor part of?
Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 48% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Eyüpspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Eyüpspor and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Konyaspor?
Record (1 meetings): Eyüpspor 0W | Draws 0 | Konyaspor 1W.
What form are Eyüpspor and Konyaspor in?
Eyüpspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Konyaspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Eyüpspor's attack rating (0.93) and Konyaspor's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Konyaspor's attack versus Eyüpspor's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eyüpspor Win
48%
2.08
26%
3.78
25%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
2.57
1.04
Konyaspor xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.92
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
22%
4.61
Win to Nil
17%
5.92
6%
18.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.2 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 1.04 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eyüpspor come into this having played 25 games, going 11W 7D 7L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L. The sample for Eyüpspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Konyaspor sit at 1.12 PPG from 25 outings (7W 7D 11L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eyüpspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Eyüpspor's home form reads 7W 3D 2L across 12 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Konyaspor have taken 0.67 points per game from 12 outings (2W 2D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Konyaspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eyüpspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Eyüpspor are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.24 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor in 64%.
Defensively: Eyüpspor have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eyüpspor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 11W 7D 7L in their last 25 games (1.60 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 7W 7D 11L in their last 25 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Konyaspor away?
Eyüpspor's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 2.00 PPG; Konyaspor away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Eyüpspor or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eyüpspor have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Aug 2025, when Konyaspor won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eyüpspor's record when hosting Konyaspor specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Eyüpspor
1
Draws
2
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Konyaspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Eyüpspor have won 1, Konyaspor have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2026, when Konyaspor 1-1 Eyüpspor.
Who has won more matches between Eyüpspor and Konyaspor?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 50%, Konyaspor 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Eyüpspor) and 42% (Konyaspor).
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eyüpspor play Konyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 58% of Konyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Eyüpspor's recent games and 42% of Konyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eyüpspor and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Eyüpspor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Eyüpspor edge out Konyaspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eyüpspor beat Konyaspor 2-1 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 27, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.53 xG and Konyaspor 1.04 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 0.93 / defence 1.00 against Konyaspor attack 0.89 / defence 1.00, drawn from 25/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 48% | Draw 26% | Konyaspor 25%, with Eyüpspor to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 48%, Konyaspor 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eyüpspor's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Konyaspor's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Eyüpspor arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.