Eyüpspor 2-0 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Eyüpspor at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eyüpspor vs Hatayspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Eyüpspor host Hatayspor at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 November 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Eyüpspor have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eyüpspor's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 0L across 4 games at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Eyüpspor are significantly better at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Hatayspor — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hatayspor's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Eyüpspor carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Eyüpspor in-play and half-time data (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Hatayspor in-play and half-time data (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 30% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eyüpspor 70% and Hatayspor 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 50% | Hatayspor 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.67 xG and Hatayspor 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 1.002 / defence 0.963 | Hatayspor attack 0.956 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 1.450 / away 1.343. Data: 10 Eyüpspor games / 47 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 47% | Draw 26% | Hatayspor 27%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Hatayspor 3.70. Eyüpspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Eyüpspor as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eyüpspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Eyüpspor 50% | Hatayspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Nov 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 47% | Draw 26% | Hatayspor 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Eyüpspor 1.67 / Hatayspor 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 1.002 / def 0.963 | Hatayspor attack 0.956 / def 1.152 | league avg home 1.450 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: Eyüpspor (47%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Hatayspor xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eyüpspor vs Hatayspor kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Hatayspor kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Eyüpspor vs Hatayspor?
Eyüpspor 2 - 0 Hatayspor.
Where is Eyüpspor vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Hatayspor part of?
Eyüpspor vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 47% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Eyüpspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Eyüpspor and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Eyüpspor vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Hatayspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Eyüpspor and Hatayspor in?
Eyüpspor (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Hatayspor (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Eyüpspor vs Hatayspor?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Eyüpspor's attack at 1.00x the league average against Hatayspor's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hatayspor's attack versus Eyüpspor's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eyüpspor Win
47%
2.15
26%
3.81
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
2.91
1.24
Hatayspor xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
19%
5.33
Win to Nil
14%
7.38
5%
19.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.3 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 1.24 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Hatayspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eyüpspor's recent record stands at 4W 4D 2L from 10 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Eyüpspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hatayspor, meanwhile, have gone 1W 3D 6L across 10 games — 0.60 PPG, with D-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Eyüpspor by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hatayspor heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Eyüpspor have managed 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — 2.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.60 PPG overall — Eyüpspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Hatayspor's away record stands at 0W 1D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eyüpspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Eyüpspor are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 0.90 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eyüpspor have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 10 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Blended
Hatayspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eyüpspor and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 games (1.60 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 (0.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Hatayspor away?
Eyüpspor's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 2.50 PPG; Hatayspor away: 0.25 PPG.
Have Eyüpspor or Hatayspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eyüpspor have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Hatayspor in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Eyüpspor
0
Draws
0
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Hatayspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Eyüpspor have won 2, Hatayspor have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2025, when Hatayspor 0-1 Eyüpspor.
Who has won more matches between Eyüpspor and Hatayspor?
Eyüpspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Hatayspor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 50%, Hatayspor 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Eyüpspor and 75% for Hatayspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eyüpspor play Hatayspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Eyüpspor's games and 75% of Hatayspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eyüpspor vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Eyüpspor's matches and 75% of Hatayspor's.
Do Eyüpspor and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Eyüpspor have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eyüpspor cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Hatayspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eyüpspor beat Hatayspor 2-0 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 11, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.67 xG and Hatayspor 1.24 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Hatayspor landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 1.00 / defence 0.96 against Hatayspor attack 0.96 / defence 1.15, drawn from 10/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 47% | Draw 26% | Hatayspor 27%, with Eyüpspor to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 50%, Hatayspor 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eyüpspor's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hatayspor's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Eyüpspor arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.60. Form held, and they took the win. Hatayspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.