Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Eyüpspor face Fenerbahçe.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Eyüpspor host Fenerbahçe at in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 February 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eyüpspor stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Eyüpspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at , Eyüpspor have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Fenerbahçe have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Fenerbahçe have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fenerbahçe's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Fenerbahçe — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Eyüpspor, 2 for Fenerbahçe and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2026, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Eyüpspor in-play tendencies (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Fenerbahçe in-play tendencies (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 43% versus Fenerbahçe 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 46% | Fenerbahçe 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.20 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.949 / defence 0.937 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.160 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.218. Data: 37 Eyüpspor games / 37 Fenerbahçe games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 34% | Draw 27% | Fenerbahçe 40%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Fenerbahçe 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Eyüpspor 40% | Fenerbahçe 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Feb 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 34% | Draw 27% | Fenerbahçe 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Eyüpspor 1.20 / Fenerbahçe 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 0.949 / def 0.937 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.160 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Fenerbahçe xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 28 February 2027.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 34% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Eyüpspor and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Fenerbahçe?
Record (4 meetings): Eyüpspor 0W | Draws 2 | Fenerbahçe 2W.
What form are Eyüpspor and Fenerbahçe in?
Eyüpspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Eyüpspor's attack rating (0.95) and Fenerbahçe's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fenerbahçe's attack versus Eyüpspor's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
34%
2.98
27%
3.73
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
2.52
1.32
Fenerbahçe xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
9%
11.22
12%
8.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.7 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.7 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 1.32 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eyüpspor come into this having played 37 games, going 9W 9D 19L for 0.97 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Eyüpspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Fenerbahçe sit at 2.16 PPG from 37 outings (23W 11D 3L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fenerbahçe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.19 PPG clear of Eyüpspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Eyüpspor's home form reads 6W 4D 9L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.16 PPG return.
Away from home, Fenerbahçe have taken 2.00 points per game from 19 outings (11W 5D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Eyüpspor are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.27 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fenerbahçe in 62%.
Last 37 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Early Season
Fenerbahçe
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eyüpspor and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 9W 9D 19L in their last 37 games (0.97 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 23W 11D 3L in their last 37 (2.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 1.16 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Eyüpspor or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eyüpspor have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Dec 2025, when Fenerbahçe won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eyüpspor's record when hosting Fenerbahçe specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Eyüpspor
2
Draws
2
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Fenerbahçe?
From 4 meetings on record, Eyüpspor have won 0, Fenerbahçe have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Fenerbahçe 3-3 Eyüpspor.
Who has won more matches between Eyüpspor and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eyüpspor see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 42%, Fenerbahçe 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Eyüpspor) and 63% (Fenerbahçe). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 16% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe in 42%; Eyüpspor have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eyüpspor play Fenerbahçe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 47% of Fenerbahçe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Eyüpspor's matches and 63% of Fenerbahçe's.
Do Eyüpspor and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Eyüpspor have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.