Eyüpspor vs Amed – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Amed at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eyüpspor vs Amed encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 27 as Eyüpspor welcome Amed to . Kick-off is set for Sunday 4 April 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Eyüpspor have gone 1W 0D 9L from 10 outings — a 0.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eyüpspor's home record at : 3W 0D 7L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Eyüpspor are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Amed — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Amed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Amed have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 away fixtures this term (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.25 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Amed's 2.30 PPG return is 2.00 points per game ahead of Eyüpspor's 0.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Eyüpspor, 1 for Amed and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2026, ended 1–5 with Amed winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Eyüpspor in-play and half-time data (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 80% of games.
Amed in-play and half-time data (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 20% versus Amed 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Eyüpspor 50% | Amed 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.20 xG and Amed 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.645 / defence 1.177 | Amed attack 1.003 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.253. Eyüpspor's attack strength of 0.645 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 Eyüpspor games / 10 Amed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 31% | Draw 26% | Amed 44%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Amed 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Amed as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Amed offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Eyüpspor 20% | Amed 75%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Amed | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Apr 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 31% | Draw 26% | Amed 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Eyüpspor 1.20 / Amed 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 0.645 / def 1.177 | Amed attack 1.003 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Amed (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Amed xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eyüpspor vs Amed kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Amed is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 4 April 2027.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Amed part of?
Eyüpspor vs Amed is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Amed?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 31% chance of winning, Amed a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Amed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Amed?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Eyüpspor and Amed will score (BTTS).
Will Eyüpspor vs Amed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Amed?
Record (1 meetings): Eyüpspor 0W | Draws 0 | Amed 1W.
What form are Eyüpspor and Amed in?
Eyüpspor (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Amed (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Eyüpspor's attack rating (0.65) and Amed's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Amed's attack versus Eyüpspor's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amed Win
31%
3.25
26%
3.90
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
2.68
1.48
Amed xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
23%
4.39
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
7%
14.27
13%
7.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 10.1 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Amed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Amed expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 1.48 for Amed, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Amed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eyüpspor's recent record stands at 1W 0D 9L from 10 games, a 0.30 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Eyüpspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Amed, meanwhile, have gone 7W 2D 1L across 10 games — 2.30 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Amed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Amed by 2.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Eyüpspor heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Eyüpspor have managed 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — 0.75 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.30 PPG overall — Eyüpspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Amed's away record stands at 1W 2D 1L across 4 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Amed's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Amed come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Eyüpspor are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game recently; Amed are on 2.50 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eyüpspor have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games; Amed in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Blended
Amed
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eyüpspor and Amed in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 1W 0D 9L in their last 10 games (0.30 PPG), while Amed have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 (2.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Amed away?
Amed's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 0.75 PPG; Amed away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Eyüpspor or Amed been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eyüpspor have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Amed in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 1 November 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Eyüpspor
0
Draws
1
Amed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Amed?
From 1 meetings on record, Eyüpspor have won 0, Amed have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Amed last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2026, when Amed 5-1 Eyüpspor.
Who has won more matches between Eyüpspor and Amed?
Amed have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Amed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 25%, Amed 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Eyüpspor and 75% for Amed. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Amed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eyüpspor play Amed?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 75% of Amed's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eyüpspor vs Amed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Eyüpspor's matches and 75% of Amed's.
Do Eyüpspor and Amed tend to score early?
Eyüpspor have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Amed in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.