Bodrum FK 0-1 Galatasaray – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Galatasaray at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodrum FK vs Galatasaray encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu plays host to Bodrum FK versus Galatasaray in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Saturday 23 November 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bodrum FK have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Bodrum FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodrum FK's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 3L across 6 games at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu this term (1.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game.
Galatasaray (all games): 9W 1D 0L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 2.80 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Galatasaray, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Galatasaray's form when playing away from home: 10W 0D 0L across 10 road games this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Galatasaray are the stronger side — 1.70 PPG clear of the hosts (2.80 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Bodrum FK half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 58% of games.
Galatasaray half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodrum FK 33% versus Galatasaray 75%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodrum FK 33% | Galatasaray 92%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodrum FK 0.79 xG and Galatasaray 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodrum FK attack 0.692 / defence 0.941 | Galatasaray attack 1.518 / defence 0.753. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.319. Bodrum FK's attack strength of 0.692 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Galatasaray's defence strength of 0.753 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Galatasaray have an above-average attack strength of 1.518 — the away xG of 1.88 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 12 Bodrum FK games / 49 Galatasaray games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodrum FK 14% | Draw 24% | Galatasaray 62%. Fair-value odds: Bodrum FK 7.14 | Draw 4.17 | Galatasaray 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Galatasaray (62%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Galatasaray are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Bodrum FK 33% | Galatasaray 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodrum FK vs Galatasaray | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodrum FK 14% | Draw 24% | Galatasaray 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 47% | xG Bodrum FK 0.79 / Galatasaray 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: Bodrum FK attack 0.692 / def 0.941 | Galatasaray attack 1.518 / def 0.753 | league avg home 1.517 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: Galatasaray (62%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Bodrum FK xG
Expected Goals
1.88
Galatasaray xG
47%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodrum FK vs Galatasaray kick off?
Bodrum FK vs Galatasaray kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Bodrum FK vs Galatasaray?
Bodrum FK 0 - 1 Galatasaray.
Where is Bodrum FK vs Galatasaray being played?
The match is being played at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu.
What competition is Bodrum FK vs Galatasaray part of?
Bodrum FK vs Galatasaray is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Bodrum FK vs Galatasaray?
Our statistical model gives Bodrum FK a 14% chance of winning, Galatasaray a 62% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Galatasaray the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodrum FK vs Galatasaray?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Bodrum FK and Galatasaray will score (BTTS).
Will Bodrum FK vs Galatasaray have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodrum FK and Galatasaray?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bodrum FK and Galatasaray in?
Bodrum FK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Galatasaray (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Bodrum FK vs Galatasaray?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Bodrum FK's attack rating (0.69) and Galatasaray's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 0.79 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Galatasaray's attack (1.52x) against Bodrum FK's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.88.
These ratings are built from 12/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 1-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Galatasaray Win
14%
7.17
24%
4.18
62%
1.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.2%
Away win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Bodrum FK xG
Total xG
2.67
1.88
Galatasaray xG
7.17
14%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
1.61
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
15%
6.57
45%
2.20
Win to Nil
2%
47.12
28%
3.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 13.0 | 12.2 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodrum FK vs Galatasaray?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Bodrum FK and Galatasaray expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Bodrum FK and 1.88 for Galatasaray, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodrum FK vs Galatasaray?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bodrum FK come into this having played 12 games, going 3W 2D 7L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-L. The sample for Bodrum FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Galatasaray sit at 2.83 PPG from 12 outings (11W 1D 0L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Galatasaray is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Galatasaray carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.91 PPG clear of Bodrum FK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Bodrum FK's home form reads 2W 1D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.92 PPG overall — Bodrum FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Galatasaray have taken 3.00 points per game from 5 outings (5W 0D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Galatasaray come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bodrum FK are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Galatasaray are on 2.92 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Galatasaray in 75%.
Last 12 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodrum FK
Blended
Galatasaray
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodrum FK and Galatasaray in coming into this match?
Bodrum FK have gone 3W 2D 7L in their last 12 games (0.92 PPG), while Galatasaray have gone 11W 1D 0L in their last 12 (2.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodrum FK at home or Galatasaray away?
Galatasaray's away record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodrum FK at home: 1.40 PPG; Galatasaray away: 3.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Bodrum FK
0
Draws
2
Galatasaray
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodrum FK and Galatasaray?
From 2 meetings on record, Bodrum FK have won 0, Galatasaray have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bodrum FK and Galatasaray last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2025, when Galatasaray 2-0 Bodrum FK.
Who has won more matches between Bodrum FK and Galatasaray?
Galatasaray have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bodrum FK see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Galatasaray are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodrum FK 40%, Galatasaray 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Bodrum FK and 100% for Galatasaray. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodrum FK have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodrum FK home games / Galatasaray away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodrum FK play Galatasaray?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Bodrum FK's games and 80% of Galatasaray's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bodrum FK vs Galatasaray usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Bodrum FK's matches and 100% of Galatasaray's.
Do Bodrum FK and Galatasaray tend to score early?
Bodrum FK have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Galatasaray in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Galatasaray edge out Bodrum FK 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Galatasaray beat Bodrum FK 0-1 at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu, Regular Season - 13, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodrum FK 0.79 xG and Galatasaray 1.88 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Galatasaray landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodrum FK attack 0.69 / defence 0.94 against Galatasaray attack 1.52 / defence 0.75, drawn from 12/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodrum FK 14% | Draw 24% | Galatasaray 62%, with Galatasaray to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodrum FK 33%, Galatasaray 92%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodrum FK's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 58% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Galatasaray's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Galatasaray arrived the stronger side — 2.83 PPG against 0.92. Form held, and they took the win. Bodrum FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Galatasaray (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.